Evolution of Zhang Jiachong SES

Editor's note 20Mar14: Source D131-17.1

Three major states of the SES can be distinguished, based on environmental, social, economic, responses, LEDD issues, and political characteristics.

Population Boom (1949 to 1979)

After war and population decline, agricultural production quickly returns to pre-war levels. Agricultural cooperatives integrate decentralized agricultural labour, while pre-war land use patterns remain, albeit with more intensive cultivation. Despite adverse soil topographic and climatic conditions, soil erosion is a minor issue.

The improvement of public health conditions and economic development supports population growth which is not matched by agricultural production, leading to food shortages. Centrally planned responses to the problem include massive land reclamation, family planning, as well as gradual industrialisation. Agriculture however retains a considerable portion of the labour force.

At the same time, the State-led economy, under Party instructions, creates a massive increase in demand for resources resulting in environmental degradation. A large area of arable land is damaged by mining and resource reclamation. Inefficient land reform and the introduction of pesticides also leads to the pollution of water and soil.

Growth of industry (1980-2000)

This period is marked by expansion of agricultural and pastoral land and misuse of pesticides and fertilizers, while soil erosion processes facilitate soil contaminants entering the water. Eutrophication and groundwater pollution spreads. Virgin forests disappear rapidly under the combined effect of natural (climate) and human pressures while grass destruction in the North and West increase dust weather in northeast China. Virgin forest in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are replaced by pine forest and other plantations, reducing the capacity for water and soil conservation. Basin-wide floods and droughts mark the late 1990s.

A slowdown in population growth brings a balance between food production and total grain demand but agricultural income declines. Surplus rural labour migrates to the cities.

At the same time, reforms and opening up to private enterprise and foreign investment change the economic sphere. The rural exodus supports labour availability for the growth of manufacturing, infrastructure and service industries. It also boosts consumption of manufactured goods by the urban population creating a virtuous economic cycle.

The rural exodus dynamic is further reinforced by the governmental adjustment of high inflation in the 1990s which causes food prices to decline sharply and deal a further blow to farmers’ incomes. Competition between industry and agriculture for limited water sources also emerges.

The period is characterised by dramatic land uses changes as cities, residential and industrial areas expand. Demand for arable land declines due to loss of labour.

Food overproduction, inefficient use of agricultural land and the devastating floods of 1998 create the conditions for the implementation of the "Grain-for-Green" project. The State Council issues "Several opinions about reconstruction, remediation rivers and lakes and irrigation" and “Regulations for the Implementation of Soil Conservation Law of the People's Republic of China” which form the basis for the "Grain-for-Green" project.

Factory of the world (2001-present)

China becomes the veritable factory of the world. The government still stimulates exports and controls food prices, in effect encouraging farmers to abandon agricultural production. The role of agriculture in the national economy is eroded. Industry, finance, real estate and service industries replace agriculture as the main source of tax revenue. Food production shrinks further and abandoned land expands as the number of farmers falls. Biofuels and other grain-consuming enterprises put further pressure on grain demand and urbanization accelerates, reducing suburban agricultural land. As a result food security emerges again as a problem. For example, in 2004 Shandong province, a former soybean exporting region becomes the largest overseas buyer of soybeans form Brazil, Mexico and Argentina.

The population is relatively stable in the southeast coastal areas but population ageing emerges as an issue.

Environmental problems have grown to the point where they severely affect the economy itself: dust weather and salinization threaten the living environment in northeast and north China; indiscriminate groundwater use and seawater intrusion threatens coastal cities; unforeseen impacts of massive construction projects also attract the attention of the State.

“Regulations for the Implementation of Soil Conservation Law of the People's Republic of China” are advanced in 2000. At the same time, the State Council makes the Grain-for-Green project a central part of western China's large-scale development plan. In 2001, the State Council promulgates “Several opinions for the further improvement of the Grain for Green policy” including provisions "to grow ecological forest.”

Population boom (1949 to 1979)
Growth of industry (1998 to 2000)
Factory of the world (2001 to date)

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