Drivers of LEDD in cropland: Italy and Alento

Authors: Giovanni Quaranta, Rosanna Salvia

Editor's note 30 Apr 2012: Text source D111 section 3.2

Tables 1 and 2 below show the list of LEDD issues, both in Italy and in the Alento study site, with their main direct and indirect drivers. According to the MEA (2005), direct drivers are considered those related to specific human activities while indirect drivers are those that lead (drive) people to undertake those specific activities.

Table 1. LEDD Issues in Italy

LEDD issues	Drivers
	Direct	Indirect
Soil erosion	Mono-cropping farming leaving the soil surface unprotected during the peak of erosivity rain	Decrease of agricultural prices
	Ploughing direction	Shape and size of land parcels
	Steep slope cultivation plot	Climate change leading to extreme events
	Rain intensity	Depopulation Cropland fire No off-farm job opportunities in rural areas Farmers ageing and no young generation taking over the farm Rural poverty Pattern of agricultural policies
Soil compaction	Mechanisation (increasing use of heavy machinery)	Agricultural wages increase Lack of local wage workers
Desertification	Rain erosivity	Decrease of agricultural prices
	Over exploitation of surface and groundwater	Shape and size of land parcels
	Mono-cropping farming leaving the soil surface unprotected during the peak of erosivity rain	Climate change leading to extreme events
	Ploughing direction	Depopulation
	Steep slope cultivation plot	Cropland fire No off-farm job opportunities in rural areas
	Urban sprawl	Farmers ageing and no young generation taking over the farm
	Tourism expansion	Rural poverty Pattern of agricultural policies
Salinisation	Groundwater abstraction	Food consumption changes
Loss of soil organic matter	Land use change Intensive agriculture Deep ploughing
Sealing	Intensification of agriculture (greenhouses)
	Urban sprawl	Increase of population living in plain and coastal areas
	Mass-tourism expansion Network connections and infrastructure facilities development
Water pollution	Mineral and organic fertilization	Intensive and specialized agriculture
	Pesticides Acid rain Polluted irrigation water
Biodiversity loss	Mono-cropping farming	Standardization of products induced by global advertising
	Use of global varieties	Fix standard required by food processors and distribution
Flooding	Soil sealing Soil compaction
Landslides	Lack of surface water control	Land abandonment Fire

In the following section we discuss all of the direct and indirect drivers, mentioned above, that mainly influence cropland in Italy and in the Alento study site.

Direct drivers

Monocultures leaving the soil surface vulnerable to rain erosion. It is the result of an over simplification of cropping systems mainly due to strictly economic considerations and a short term approach of the farmers led by the CAP and international trade agreements. A report by the National Official Statistics (ISTAT 2010), which surveyed the annual cropland in Italy and provides a clear picture of the distribution of farming practices in Italy, shows that monoculture farming, considered the most environmentally damaging practice, involves 16.2 percent of annual cropland. Monoculture, mainly cereals, leaves the soil surface unprotected especially during the highest peak of rain erosivity.

Ploughing direction. According to field shape and slope, soil can be tilled in various directions, parallel or perpendicular to the contour lines or in oblique lines. Shallow tillage of soil reduces effects on soil erosion in all ploughing directions, while contour line is the less damaging tillage operation for steep slopes.

Cultivation of steep slopes. Due to its geomorphology, Italy still presents a wide range of steep slope cultivation exposing the surface to the direct impact of raindrops. Very often planting is done up and down the hillsides, so that the inter-row space is left bare providing ideal conditions for rill erosion downhill. There is also little attempt to cover the soil by using mulches or cover crops, particularly during the inter-crop period.

Rain intensity. The soil can be dispersed by the raindrops depending on soil structure and aggregate content. Soil movement by rainfall (raindrop splash) is usually greatest and most noticeable during short-duration, high-intensity storms.

Mechanization (increasing use of heavy machinery). As labour becomes more and more expensive and technology improves, most agricultural operations are mechanized. Innovation technologies provide farms with all kinds of machinery increasing the total number of passages on the soil surface.

Rain erosivity. Soil erosion by running water occurs where the intensity and duration of rainstorms exceeds the capacity of the soil to infiltrate the rain. According to the most prevalent cropping system in Italy, a great part of which is dominated by rain fed agriculture, rain erosivity plays a very crucial role in determining soil erosion rates.

Overexploitation of surface and groundwater. Italian agriculture’s share in total water use is about 60 percent (OECD 2008), reflecting the prominent role of irrigation, with two-thirds of water drawn from surface water sources. Excessive extraction of groundwater for irrigation occurs in the South (often illegally) which, coupled with high losses through leakage, have led to water shortages in at least three months every year. Estimated water losses across the national irrigation network are 30-50 percent of water withdrawals (OECD 2008). This is due to both poor infrastructure maintenance and inadequate technology. Nevertheless, there are indications of improvements in irrigation water management toward using more efficient water application technologies, such as drip emitters (used on over 20 percent of the total irrigated area in 2007) (OECD 2008).

Urban sprawl. In a country like Italy, where mountain areas occupy approximately 30 percent and hilly areas over 53 percent of the total land area, urban expansion is rapidly covering the plains which occupy only 18 percent of national land (Romano et al. 2008). In addition, over 43 percent of the coastline is completely urbanised mainly due to tourism development, 28 percent is partially urbanised and less than 29 percent is still free from construction (Romano et al. 2008). At present, Italy has no national law regulating land consumption and the topic is hardly considered in regional and town planning legislation.

Tourism expansion. Construction related to tourism development (hotels, airports, roads, vacation homes) causes the greatest negative impact on the fragile coastal and marine ecosystems in Italy, as in the whole Mediterranean. During the summer months water supplies problems are exacerbated by tourist flows as water is used for hotels, swimming pools and golf courses. Periodic water shortages already exist in many regions and are likely to spread and increase. This not only is an environmental threat but poses many problems for the tourism industry itself as the shortages could lead to structural problems in the long term. Throughout the Southern part of Italy water use conflicts are spreading and worsening.

Groundwater abstraction. Saline intrusion and groundwater salinisation are widespread along the coastlines of Italy due to over-abstraction. In particular agriculture plays a major role in water extraction and consumption especially in Mediterranean coastal areas where intensive irrigated horticulture is widespread. Nevertheless, in many areas a large contribution to aquifer overexploitation is due to the industrial and residential sectors and, seasonally, to tourism. The problem is even more evident in the drought prone coastlines of Southern Italy.

Land use change. Although deforestation has been reversed in recent years, in past decades forest has been converted to cropland, meadow and pasture lands.

Intensive agriculture. Besides the traditional geographical divisions in agriculture (North and South) there are new divisions which have radically changed the face of Italian agriculture. For example, the gap in production between flat land and hilly areas has widened with flat land becoming ever more intensively farmed whilst hilly and mountainous areas are increasingly abandoned and marginalized. The intensity of production and average productivity in areas of flat land has reached around four times that of mountain areas, whilst it is estimated that over 50 percent of Italian agricultural production comes from areas of flat land which occupy just 30 percent of Italian agricultural surface (ISMEA 2011). Traditional practices (especially the integration of manures) have been abandoned for a long time leading to a generally impoverishment of OM soil content.

In intensive farmland areas, predominantly used for greenhouse farming or covered with plastic mulch films, the impervious layers form a vertical barrier between the pedosphere, the atmosphere and the hydrosphere. This phenomenon is fuelled by the continuous reduction of agricultural prices which push farmers to produce out of season in order to get better prices. Greenhouses both heated and unheated are largely covering most of the southern Italy plains were most favourable conditions contribute to obtain early production.

Deep ploughing. According to the extensive survey carried out by ISTAT (ISTAT 2010) ploughing is the most common tillage method with 53.7 percent of farms favouring this method. The survey also shows that in terms of tillage depths, the most common depth is between 20 and 40 centimetres (29.9 percent).

The most environmentally friendly tillage method is of course minimum or no-tillage which exerts the least environmental pressure on land. Minimum or no-tillage is favoured by 13.3 percent of farms and in more than half of these cases it is used for the tillage of sloping land as, unlike other methods, this type of tillage presents few or no problems on sloping land. For this reason minimum or no-tillage is relatively frequent in farms found in mountainous areas (21.5 percent), while ploughing direction becomes a critical issue for those areas. In fact when slopes become steep the only possible direction to avoid machines overturning is vertical that can accelerate surface water flow exacerbating soil erosion.

Road networks. In Italy, due to its particular geomorphology, the diffusion of road network and infrastructure facilities is assuming worrying proportions in the large plain areas, where urbanization is coupled with intensive farming. The problem of soil loss due to urbanization is a particularly serious one and a matter of concern since it strongly compromises large areas of land, which are often characterized by soils with a high agricultural value. According to the Environmental Yearbook (ISPRA 2009) the comparison between CORINE Land Cover data sets (1990 and 2000) has led to the identification of a trend in land use, even though the minimum mapping unit limit of 25 ha does not clearly show the development of scattered urban centres and of the minor road network. This shows there is a progressive reduction of areas destined for agricultural use (-1.6 percent), a recovery of forest or semi-natural soils (+1.0 percent) and an increase of urbanized areas (+0.6 percent), especially on the coast.

Mineral and organic fertilisers and pesticides. According to the Italian Environmental Yearbook (ISPRA 2009), intensive farming practices, making abundant use of pesticides, chemical fertilisers and manure, can result in an excess of nutritional elements (N, P and K), in accumulation of heavy metals and in the spread of biocide substances. In particular, an excess of nutritional elements can result in serious groundwater pollution and eutrophication of water ecosystems, since nitrates are highly soluble in water and not easily retained by soil.

The observed trend of excess nitrates has gradually decreased in almost all Italian regions in the last decades, thanks to the measures taken to comply with the current EC legislation. In some cases, the use of sewage sludge in farming (that can produce significant quantities of hazardous substances if combined with nutrients and organic carbon) has raised concern when it is not correctly managed and controlled.

Finally, in specific geological contexts, the high levels of some contaminants can have a natural origin. In fact, an elevated concentration of heavy metals in the soil can be determined by the chemical characteristics of the rock/parent material. Therefore, in order to identify eventual human contamination, action needs to be taken to correctly define the soil’s nutrient content.

Polluted irrigation water. In Italy the use of increasingly less adequate water in agriculture, salty waters, civil and industrial treated water, is increasing due to both reduction in quantity of water for irrigation and expansion of irrigated crops.

Use of global crop varieties. Globalization and agricultural intensification have diminished the use of traditional crop varieties, leading, in some cases, to their extinction. The adopted crop varieties, that dominate agriculture globally are, in some extent, imposed both by productivity needs and policy requirements.

Lack of surface water control. Soil and water control measures and infrastructure works, such as terraces, are liable to collapse if not maintained and this lack of maintenance consequently increases the risk of erosion and landslides.

Indirect drivers

Decrease in agricultural prices. The volatility of food prices represents a problem for the poorest consumers and agriculture, particularly that which is highly dependent on external production inputs and that, although with capital availability, has no or a low degree of autonomy in production decisions. Farms, therefore, which have industrialized and "streamlined" systems of production have almost completely lost sovereignty over their production decisions. As price takers they suffer the prices of production inputs and simultaneously the trend of prices of products at farm gate.

Climate change leading to extreme events. The effects of climate change in Italy and the subsequent impact on cropland can be summarized as follows (Ferrara 2007). The increase in annual average temperatures in Italy are in line with those registered globally (0.6°C – 0.8°C over the last 100 years). Minimum temperatures have seen a greater increase than maximum temperatures (especially in the North) and winter temperatures have seen a greater increase than summer temperatures (especially in the South). Summer heat waves have increased in terms of duration and intensity. However, winter cold waves have decreased in frequency and intensity.

Amount of total rainfall has decreased throughout the national territory with higher reductions in central and southern regions. The total number of days of rainfall has fallen by 14 percent over the last 50 years; all regions report a trend of more intense but shorter spells of rainfall. Dry spells are also on the increase, northern regions report longer dry spells in winter whilst southern regions report longer dry spells in summer.

Total water resources are currently estimated at 50 billion cubic metres per annum. Distribution is uneven; North Italy (41 percent), Central Italy (26 percent), South Italy (20 percent), Islands (6 percent). Water resources are to be further reduced due to decreases in rainfall, an increase in evapotranspiration and increased pumping. Water resource distribution will also become more uneven with greater reductions in the South and on the islands and slighter reductions in the North and central regions. Degradation of soil quality is reported especially in the South, although degradation is not solely caused by climatic factors.

Depopulation. Agricultural intensification on the plains and land abandonment in mountainous areas has led to an increasing depopulation of mountainous areas and marginal rural areas whilst population levels in areas of flat land with more amenities are on the increase.

The last two censuses (ISTAT 1990-2000) show an increase in depopulation and abandonment of farming shown by a constant decline in population numbers, in UAA and in number of farms. The total rural population has fallen by one percent, with highs of two percent in the most disadvantaged areas, whilst national population has increased by 0.4 percent. In many cases these areas have very little economic activity and so land abandonment and depopulation are on the rise which in time can cause hydro geological instabilities, problems with landscape preservation and desertification, especially in mountainous areas which are often home to important ecosystems in need of protection. This phenomenon is only partially mitigated by the in-migration of temporary foreign workers.

Cropland fire. Fires that destroy not only forest but also cropland are increasingly becoming an issue. The number of forest fires reported nationally is one of the indicators used by ISPRA in its Environmental Data Yearbook published annually. On the basis of the data provided from 1970 to 2008 (data from State Forest Fire Agency – Service Archive AIB), the indictor shows annual figures of surface terrain affected by fire (wooded and un-wooded areas), as well as total number of fires. A detailed study of this vast data collection shows that forest fire rates are by no means predictable or steady, there are years of very high incident rates followed by long periods of inactivity. One especially critically period came in the mid 1980s, in the following years incident levels remained consistently high, then came a progressive reduction in numbers until 2006, followed by a fresh outbreak in 2007 (227,523 ha) and again a period of relative reduction in 2008.

Lack of off-farm work opportunities in rural areas. Off farm job opportunities cover the need for additional activities in order to maintain a viable farm. Some areas might be susceptible to the occurrence of marginalization if they have a high share of farms without sufficient off-farm income generating activities that also have insufficient activities to meet the requirements to fulfil the standards on Annual Work Unit.

Ageing farmers and a lack of younger farmers entering agriculture. Depopulation of rural areas has lead to an increasingly ageing farming community: in 2007 only 6.9 percent of farms were run by farmers under 40, over 44 percent were run by farmers over 65; young farmers represent only 16 percent of the total, that is one out of six farmers is considered a young farmer (ISTAT Study of Farm Structure and Production 2005 and 2007).

Decades of industrialization and rural exodus have impoverished the demographics of rural areas especially the younger population. Although the agricultural workforce has decreased in all Western European countries the situation in Italy is peculiar because of the short time frame in which the numbers fell (from the end of the 1950s to the beginning of the 1990s) (CNEL 1985) and because of the knock-on effects this has had on the socio-demographic makeup of Italy’s population and the extent of urbanisation. Over time, the migration of farm-workers to other job sectors has lead to the full-scale depopulation of rural areas. Rural exodus most commonly concerns younger members of the population thus shaping the demographics of the agricultural sector. After the Second World War, farm abandonment was caused solely by the migration of the workforce from the primary sector to the industrial sector. However, in recent years, economic viability has strongly motivated farm abandonment. Farmers wishing to take-over or start a new business are facing unsustainable set-up costs, increasingly saturated and competitive markets, scarce resources (land and water) and problems relating to poor infrastructure, isolation and reduced supply of services in rural areas.

It should also be noted that statistics on the age of farmers do not take into consideration the presence of younger farmers who effectively run their own farms but are not formally the farm-owner (Barbero 1988). Farms are usually only officially handed over after death, due to various socio-cultural factors such as: traditional pyramid family structure in rural communities; farm-owners’ emotional attachment to their land; and a legacy dating back to the times of agrarian reform which are still vivid in the minds of small Italian farmers. However, it should also be said that often young people are unwilling to take on the responsibility of running a farm as they are already employed in other sectors or because the farm cannot guarantee a sufficient income.

The sparse population of young people has a negative impact on the agricultural sector not only in terms of the effects of land abandonment but also in terms of the loss of entrepreneurial dynamism. Farms run by young people are on average larger than others, as rented land is added to that already owned. The amount of time dedicated to farm work (on average over 105 days a year) suggests these farms are highly specialized in livestock breeding and horticulture. Farms run by young famers are also those which require the least agricultural labourers – family members and/or full-time labourers, this underlines the initial difficulty young people have in taking on a farm. Young farmers increasingly run diversified farms, 39 percent of farms have their own processing systems. Furthermore, farms run by young farmers tend to cater for agri-tourism, grow organic crops; use non-traditional farming practices and exploit modern technology resources such as the internet (CNEL 2004; EURISPES 2004).

After years of rural exodus and resettlement in the agricultural areas nearest urban and industrialized areas we are now seeing a new trend: the arrival of foreign workers to the Italian countryside. The principal reasons for employing migrant workers are: number of older or elderly farmers who require more farm labourers, demand for seasonal farm labourers or longer-term employment like livestock farming and cheap housing, at least in areas where the countryside hasn’t been urbanised. Buying or renting land is very difficult for foreign workers so, at least in the short term, the presence of migrant workers does not create new farms but rather helps contain production costs and help make existing farms more competitive.

Rural poverty. Rural poverty has become an increasingly pressing problem in recent years. It contributes to the feeling of indifference amongst the younger generations towards farming and also fuels depopulation. Family income for famers is, in fact, the lowest of all sectors (industry, public sector, Service industry) and many farmers are finding it increasingly difficult to meet increased costs of living.

Agricultural policies. This section contains a summary of the main patterns of agricultural policies. These policies are more fully described in »Policy context and policy recommendations for LEDD in cropland: general.

By far the most important policies affecting rural areas and cropland are Common Agricultural Policies (CAP) and Rural Development policies. CAP policies have been under continuous reform, first through the MacSharry reform, then Agenda 2000 and finally the Fischler reform in 2003. The result is a substantial modification in the agricultural subsidy system and a progressive reduction in grants allocated to farmers. The autonomy of choice of crops for farmers, resulting from the introduction of single farm payments based on previous subsides received, (decoupling), is accompanied by a set of strict environmental criteria (eco-conditionality) which must be met in order to receive the total payment of subsidies. Regulatory bodies identify direct aid to income with the acknowledgment and attribution of a “right to public subsidy” (title) transferable to other farms based on pre-established criteria. Alongside these measures, the recent EU provisions provide for the maintenance, in some agricultural sectors, of a direct dependency on production subsidies and acknowledgment of coupled awards. It is perhaps too soon to establish what effects the progressive dismantling of public subsidies, together with increasing liberalization of agricultural markets will have on the sector. It is plausible that the competitive pressure exerted on other areas of production will lead, on the one hand, to an intensification of productive processes paired with a decline in social production relationships (reduction of cost of labour, need for migrant workforce, mechanization of production) and, on the other, to an important increase in the demise of farming activities in areas already suffering from depopulation, although this should, in part, be compensated by territorial and farming diversification supported by rural development policies. It is undeniable, however, that the obligations set out for agricultural production and, especially, the possibility for farmers to decide their own crop cultivation, allow farmers to productively use resources and have the final say on viable sustained productivity.

Agricultural wage increase / Lack of local wage workers. As the exodus from the agricultural sector becomes an increasing phenomenon in Italy, people willing to work in agriculture become fewer and fewer. As a consequence wages get higher and are not necessarily linked to farm profitability. The cost of labour in agriculture has also been exacerbated by the high cost social security (up to 45 percent of total labour cost) although this has recently been mitigated by immigrant workers.

Changes in patterns of food consumption. The key factors in the evolution of food consumption habits are:

• major socio-demographic and life-style changes;
• the emergence of more knowledgeable consumers and a greater focus on diet;
• income and purchasing power disparities among Italian households.

The primary socio-demographic trends in Italy prompting this shift in food expenditure habits are; the aging of society, the movement towards single nucleus households, new lifestyle choices, and a growing multi-ethnic culture. Another significant driver of this change is household composition. Recent demographic trends have sparked a change in eating habits, more single-person households, coupled with the spread of a new family model has led to a greater tendency to eat outside the home and an increase in the consumption of pre-cooked and single-serving meals. The second factor to consider is the emergence of a more knowledgeable consumer base, one that places greater emphasis on food quality.

The final factor to be considered is the disparity in income distribution, which is reflected in the purchasing power of Italian individuals and households. Italy has a high Gini index score showing considerable inequalities in income distribution (Esposti et al. 2007). This gap in income and the difficulty of achieving higher average incomes – which would somewhat close the existing gap – leave the typical dietary habits of higher income consumers (who expect more services, are more health and food safety conscious, and are prepared to spend more on differentiated and quality products) at risk of remaining a minority share of the market.

The income disparities that exist in different areas of the country and the higher poverty rate in the South suggest that price continues to be an important factor in deciding whether to purchase a food product. This is all the more true in Italian population bracket considered low-income or near the poverty line.

The elasticity of demand in relation to the price of preferred foods is also connected with the type of food. It is interesting to note that, according the ISTAT household consumption survey (ISTAT I consumi delle famiglie 2009), 15 percent of households, under the pressure of inflation, chose to buy lower-quality products. This means that strong inflationary pressure causes consumers to make important changes in the type of foods purchased, which can impact the propensity to consume higher quality products. Basically, food consumption patterns depend upon two factors: quality and price. In Italy, this is also related to the co-existence of great prosperity and poverty.

Intensive and specialised agriculture. Farming areas in Italy are favouring one of two distinct models of production: the first is intensive farming, localized to the plains or areas with ample resources, quite often overexploited; the second is a Mediterranean model of production for rural areas generally considered marginal when compared to more intensive farming areas. The latter faces both a structural weakness and an environmental fragility exacerbated by farming abandonment.

The intensive and specialized farming systems mainly apply to large-scale arable or horticultural production on the most fertile or accessible land and intensive livestock and crop varieties. Intensive systems often involve significant modification of water resources - increased irrigation in arid areas and horticulture - and the application of fertilisers and crop protection products to arable, horticultural and orchards.

Changes in food chain contracts. Large retail chains (LRCs) act as an intermediary between consumers and the agri-food industry. In order to guarantee a standard food product throughout the entire year, LRCs enter into detailed contracts with suppliers with a range of production and/or processing specifications. For example, contracts may establish the sowing schedule and the type of seeds to be used, the physical characteristics of the product (this criterion is used for fresh food products), the quantities and frequencies of periodic deliveries and deliveries over the course of the year, the type of wrapping and packaging and the preservation method. All this growing pressures reduce both physical biodiversity (varieties) and cultural diversity (traditional knowledge).

Land abandonment. Land abandonment tends to occur in remote areas or on less fertile land where traditional extensive agriculture is threatened by its inability to compete effectively with intensive production in other regions. In these areas, farm incomes are low and there are few incentives for young people to take on farms from the previous generation. As older farmers retire, land may be abandoned, leading to the loss of traditionally managed, semi-natural habitats and an increased risk of disasters such as fires, particularly in arid regions. Alternatively, land may be consolidated into larger holdings which are managed with much less labour so features and habitats become degraded - a style of farming which has been termed 'ranching'.

Alento study area

Table 2. LEDD issues in the Alento study site

LEDD issues	Drivers
	Direct	Indirect
Soil erosion	Collapse of terraces (upper zone, crown of Alento river basin border) Abandonment of traditional arming system	Low olive oil price
		Depopulation
	Increase of rain erosivity	Climate change leading to extreme events Cropland fire High labour costs No off-farm job opportunities in rural areas Impoverishment of traditional knowledge on how to maintain /build terraces Farmers ageing and no young generation taking over the farm Small farm size and farm dispersion Pattern of agricultural policies
	All the above interconnected drivers
Soil sealing (plain areas)	Intensification of agriculture (greenhouses)	Increase of population living in plain and coastal areas
	Urban sprawl Mass-tourism expansion Road networks

Direct drivers

Collapse of terraces (upper zone, crown of Alento River Basin border). Terraces come from a long process of changing the slope of the surface, the flow of the rainfall runoff and of immobilising soil. The lack of maintenance of this man-altered landscape implies the increase of the geomorphic hazard with diffuse problems of instability and the raise of the solid transport in the rivers and dams. In the Alento this problem assumes a particular importance due to the fact that farmers, even when they continue farming, are not encouraged to maintain the terraces because the costs of maintenance are very high compared to revenues of the farms. The subsidies, provided under the support scheme of rural development plan, are trying to sustain investments on these issues. However, on the long term this option might not be economically sustainable since the required amount per square meters is extremely high.

Abandonment of traditional farming system. The abandonment of traditional extensive farming practices is negatively influencing the environment (increased fire risk and landslide), the local landscape and the social-cultural geography of the area.

Increase in rain erosivity. In the Alento, rain erosivity is characterized by a marked seasonal variability, with higher values during the transition from summer to autumn. For proper evaluation of the effects on the ground, it is important to examine the seasonal variability of the erosivity in relation to seasonal variability of the degree of soil protection offered by natural vegetation formations and practices of land use and the occurrence of phenomena such as perturbation fires.

Intensification of agriculture (greenhouses). The cropland of the Alento is quite polarized showing a territorial concentration of crops, with olive groves located in inland hilly areas and intensive farming of vegetables and fruits which is expanding on the plains and on flatland near the coast. Agricultural surface is actually on the increase in Alento and production is becoming more intensified (density of machinery, mechanization, irrigation, variety) in areas of irrigable flat land. This trend although has been influenced by agricultural policies, can be mainly attributed to external factors such as increased cost of labour and other input costs, competition and moving of farmers from neighbouring more degraded land which consider this recent cropland more suitable for very intensive agricultural crop.

Urban sprawl, mass tourism expansion, road networks. These drivers are not dissimilar from the ones operating in Italy as a whole. Please see above.

Indirect drivers

Low olive oil prices. Economic drivers could hold a significant importance for the Alento area because of the extent of specialization in the olive cultivation sector and for its distance from the main Italian and European place of consumption. The olive sector are in crisis (ISMEA 2009), with prices at farm gate continuing to fall, despite increasing demand, and with more and more produce in the market coming from areas of production with significant competitive advantages.

Depopulation. From the 1961-2000 population data we see very few towns have an increasing population rate whilst all others have seen a considerable reduction in population figures. The drop in population figures, especially in the last ten years, has largely concerned the younger generations. In fact, the elderly index rate restores the direct link between depopulation dynamics and population ageing.

Climate change. The effects of climate change in the Alento could lead to an increasingly unpredictable crop production due to increased frequency of periods of extreme weather conditions and seasonal changes which affect the traditional time for agricultural practices. Instabilities in the area’s water balance due to climatic changes can also increase the risk of forest fires during the winter months and further aggravate fires during the summer months.

Cropland fire. The Mediterranean as a whole is characterized by the expansion of forest fires. In the area mainly covered by permanent crops (mainly olive groves), fires increasingly involve croplands. This phenomenon is aggravated by land abandonment and climate change.

High labour costs. See the same driver in Italy.

Lack of off-farm work opportunities in rural areas. According to the workers by sector of employment, agriculture and pensions are the most important source of income in the Alento. Off-farm labour opportunities are offered mostly outside of the area while a minority of them are available in the plains of Alento study site.

Loss of traditional knowledge of terrace maintenance. As the population ages fewer young people are involved in farming activities and so the knowledge required to maintain the traditional terraces of the area risks extinction. This leads to an important impoverishment of the traditional knowledge which has characterized the whole area for centuries.

Ageing farmers and a lack of younger farmers entering agriculture. The de-activation of farming is closely linked to depopulation. Another issue, which is revealing in terms of the dynamics conditioning the evolution of Alento’s social-ecological system, is the rate of generation change in farming. In 2007 young farmers (aged between 15 and 39) represented 5.84 percent of all farmers in the region, compared to higher figures in Italy (ISMEA 2011). The value of the agricultural sector, which is even greater if measured in terms of AV compared to the regional average, is therefore not accompanied by the entrance of a new generation of young entrepreneurship which could give this area greater economic viability and social re-vitalization as well as create the necessary conditions for young people to stay in the area.

Small farm size and farm dispersion. Farming in the Alento area is characterized by a large share of small but dispersed farms (i.e. split into small, scattered plots). In small farms the cultivation has become very much a secondary activity which does not provide any significant income. Often these activities are found on marginal strips of land where olive trees and minor crops are cultivated. In the past there was a tendency to plant olive trees on any available piece of land, even land that was not entirely suitable, and so today much of this land is now abandoned. Farmers who cultivate in these problematic areas of land today are mostly non-farmers, who take on the farming to live in the countryside and/or for personal consumption and/or to supplement their main income. However, in cases such as these, farming has an important social value, the retired and elderly participate and keep active, it provides income supplements, increased demand for labour and more residents.

Pattern of agricultural policies. This section contains a summary of the main patterns of agricultural policies. These policies are more fully described in »Policy context and policy recommendations for LEDD in cropland: general.

The influence of policy drivers on agriculture is crucial in the Alento area. The change from coupled to decoupled government subsidies restored greater choice of agriculture products to the market. Generally speaking decoupling has led to a reduction in intensive farming systems and an abandonment of agriculture systems where production costs outweigh profit. In the long term decoupling should lead to an overall reduction in agricultural surface and a greater concentration of production in the areas best suited to intensive farming (irrigated flat land which allows use of agricultural mechanization). Land abandonment is closely tied to market price, which remains unfavourable. Although cross compliance guidelines include minimum land maintenance regulations, the effectiveness of these regulations depends entirely on the amount of subsidies allocated to farms: if too low (in the case of small, less productive farms) some farmers easily choose to renounce the single farm payment, completing abandoning their farming activities.

Increase in migration to plains and coastal areas. This is a global phenomenon in Italy. See above.

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