Drivers of LEDD in cropland: general

Editor's note 30 Apr 2012: Text source D111, section 3.2.

In »LEDD issues in cropland worldwide, we introduced and discussed the main LEDD issues which concern cropland worldwide, in the countries where the study sites are located and in the broader regions of the study sites themselves. These LEDD issues do not occur in isolation but are driven by interdependent environmental, economic and social processes, operating at multiple scales, singly and in combination with each other.

In this section of LEDDRIS we will discuss these key drivers at global, national and regional spatial levels. Policy drivers are discussed here only briefly. For a full discussion of policy drivers in the three land themes, please refer to »Policy context and policy recommendations for LEDD in cropland: general.

The MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2003, p.15) defines direct and indirect drivers of ecosystem change and their relationship as follows:

• "A driver is any factor that changes an aspect of an ecosystem.
• A direct driver unequivocally influences ecosystem processes and can therefore be identified and measured to differing degrees of accuracy.
• An indirect driver operates more diffusely, often by altering one or more direct drivers, and its influence is established by understanding its effect on a direct driver.
• Both indirect and indirect drivers often operate synergistically. Changes in land cover, for example, can increase the likelihood of introduction of alien invasive species. Similarly, technological advances can increase rates of economic growth."

In LEDDRA, the above distinction is adopted. Practically, direct drivers of LEDD are intentional and unintentional human activities and interventions that cause changes to the characteristics of the environment; i.e. they cause LEDD directly (e.g. land management practices, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.). Indirect drivers are those socio-economic, cultural, institutional, political and other forces that drive people to undertake activities that may or may not cause LEDD (e.g. demand for food, prices, policies, norms, property rights, etc.).

Table 1 below presents the direct and indirect drivers of LEDD in cropland. Drivers operate at all spatial levels (global, national, regional, local); their specific operational form depending on the level concerned.

Table 1. Direct and indirect drivers of LEDD in cropland

Source: (Adapted from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2003)

The human population of the world is increasing by about 1.5 percent per year and is projected to double by the end of 21st Century. Increasing human population and increasing demands for food may require both expansion of land used for crop production and higher yield per unit area of croplands to provide enough food supplies for people (Grubler 1994). It has been estimated that deforestation and land conversion to agriculture was about 0.3 hectares for each additional person between 1700 and 1980 for the world in general, and 0.2 hectares per additional person between 1950 and 1980 for the developing countries (Grubler 1994). Using the figure of 0.2 hectares per person, it is estimated that an increase of 10x106 km² in the area of cropland would be needed for an additional 5 billion people in the 21st Century. The expansion in world food production during the twentieth-century has pushed agriculture into highly vulnerable land in many countries. In the former Soviet Union, expansion of cropland into grassland occurred between 1954 and 1960, in order to increase cereal production. Initially, grain production achieved impressive results, but yields declined rapidly, as a dust bowl developed (Brown 2005). As argued by Scherr and Yadav (2001) by 2020, land degradation may pose a serious threat to food production, particularly in poor and densely populated areas of the developing world. They emphasize the need for appropriate policies to encourage land-improving investments and better land management if developing countries are to sustainably meet the food needs of their populations.

Increasing world population also implies an increasing demand for housing, industry, roads, airports and recreation, amongst other resources and services. It is estimated that for every million people added to the world’s population, 40,000 hectares of land are needed for non-farm uses. Part of the land that will be used for urban development is currently fertile cropland (Brown 2005, Gardner 2001). Almost three-quarters of Europe's population live in urban and suburban areas, accounting for approximately 10 percent of the total EU land area. Recent analysis shows that more than 800,000 additional hectares of naturally productive land were lost as a result of development for homes, offices, shops, factories, roads and golf courses, adding six percent to the continent's urban areas between 1990 and 2000. The expected loss of arable land due to urbanisation between 1990 and 2020 is estimated to be 14 Mha, representing about one percent of world cropland. According to the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED 1992), the programme ‘Promoting Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development’ has been established with priority for maintaining and improving the capacity of potential agricultural lands to support increasing populations. However, there is great concern amongst various nations about the limitations of land resources, and the need to design mechanisms to ensure that land resources are used sustainably. For example, as reported by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP 2001), following significant losses in the nation's arable land, the Chinese government has strengthened controls relating to the use of arable land.

According to UN General Assembly, in 2010 climate change is expected to affect food availability and cropland areas. It is expected that by 2020, the yield of food in certain areas of Africa will have decreased by 50 percent, due to changes in air temperature, this without taking into account other climatic phenomena such as El Nino and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. Cramer and Soloman (1993) found that climate change significantly affects the area and spatial distribution of land that can potentially be used for crop production. According to Xiangming et al. (1997), among the various economic regions, the former Soviet Union and the Other OECD countries and regions have the largest potential land area available for expansion of croplands, while developing countries have little potential land area available for expansion. Climate change will affect soil and water resources on agricultural land through multiple pathways, as many climatic variables have important effects on land conservation (USDA 2003). Those variables include precipitation, temperature, wind, solar radiation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide, among others. Change in any single variable is also complex. It is estimated that agriculture is responsible for 33 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. Continuous atmospheric CO2 rise will have an increasing impact on the synthesis of carbohydrates and uptake of useful or harmful elements by crops, leading to so-called ‘hidden hunger’ and degradation of crop quality.

Global level drivers

Global level drivers, which affect agriculture around the world include: (a) international trade and globalization of markets; (b) world prices of agricultural and other products; (c) energy prices and. International agricultural trade has increased 10-fold since the 1960s owing to more open trade policies, market liberalization in many developing countries and advances in communications and transport systems. This has been used as an advantage for some developing countries to trade exports of non-traditional products such as flowers, fruits, and wine (Hazell and Wood 2008). Low product prices are favourable for consumers, but they are a disincentive for farmers.

Low prices have particularly discouraged investment and production in countries and regions that are not sharing technological advances and whose costs are not declining as fast as others. High energy prices can have various environmental impacts. In mechanised farming systems, high energy prices may encourage lower tillage practices reducing land degradation. On the other hand, high energy prices may contribute to additional deforestation and land degradation through greater use of wood, manures and crop by-products as sources of household energy in rural areas. Although international trade and the globalization of markets have enabled many developing countries to open up their agricultural markets to international trade in recent years, the protectionist agricultural polices of most OECD countries are increasingly recognized as discriminating against the well-being of farmers in developing countries. Developing country farmers not only have limited access to rich country agricultural markets, but also face domestic markets distorted by subsidized imports (Hazell and Wood 2008).

National level drivers

National level drivers affect agriculture at the national level, although factors such as poor infrastructure and market access may lead to spatially differentiated impacts. The following drivers have been considered as globally important, affecting cropland and land use change: (a) per capita income and urbanization; (b) changing market structures and; (c) shifts in public policy (Hazell and Wood 2008). An increase in per capita income leads to major transformations within the agricultural sector. Agriculture’s share in national income and employment falls as countries grow richer and diversify into manufacturing and service sector activities, resulting in progressively less importance of the agricultural sector for national economic growth. Furthermore, as per capita incomes rise, labour becomes more expensive relative to land and capital, and small farms begin to be squeezed out by larger and more capitalised farms. This also leads to an exodus of agricultural workers and the adoption of more capital intensive technologies. As a result, farms become larger, more commercial and more specialised in higher-value products (Lipton 2005).

Market structures are changing through trade liberalization and globalization. As a result, developing country farmers are increasingly being challenged to compete in markets that are much more consumer driven and demanding in terms of type, quality and safety of agricultural products. These changes offer new opportunities to farmers who can successfully access and compete in such transformed markets, but they are also a serious threat to those who cannot (Hazell and Wood 2008).

Evidence on the net impact of public policy reforms on agricultural growth remains mixed (Fan and Rao 2003). The removal of subsidies has made some key inputs (e.g. fertilizer) prohibitively expensive for many farms, and the removal of price stabilisation programmes has exposed farmers to more volatile farm gate prices. These problems are especially pressing for small farms located in more remote regions with poor infrastructure and market access. These policy-related driving forces are particularly challenging for Africa and South Asia, where small farms account for over 80 percent of total farms and 40 percent or more of total agricultural output.

Local level drivers

Local level drivers are specific to each local geographical area and to different types of agricultural production system. Local level drivers can be distinguished as the following (a) poverty, (b) population pressure, (c) population health, (d) technology, (e) property rights, (f) infrastructure and (g) market access.

Poverty is an important driving force behind land degradation, but it appears more likely to occur in poor-quality and fragile agricultural lands, especially those with high and increasing population densities. Worsening degradation contributes to lower incomes and deepening poverty. Poor people are generally less able to monitor land degradation (Mink 1993). They are also more likely than those with higher incomes to have large families, lack investment capital, face insecure property rights have limited access to suitable technologies and are less informed about the impacts of their actions.

Rural population growth is still high in many, particularly poorer, countries despite migration and rapid urbanisation. However, how this impacts on agricultural productivity and environmental management is still a matter of some debate. Population growth can lead to expansion of cropland in marginal lands, leading to further land degradation and decline in per capita output (Malthus 1993).

Technology has proven to be the most important driver of agricultural productivity. The way that new technologies are designed and managed has important environmental impacts on agriculture. Poorly designed or inappropriately used technologies can lead to increased production but can be accompanied by land degradation. New technologies have often been developed to secure short-term profitability for farmers but without consideration of their impact on longer-term sustainability. For example, the construction of modern irrigation systems without adequate provision for water drainage can lead to water-logging and salinisation problems. Well-designed technologies can make important contributions to productivity growth while also improving environmental outcomes (Hazell and Wood 2008).

The property rights that farmers have over natural resources can be important in determining whether they take a short- or long-term perspective in managing resources (Hazell and Wood 2008). Farmers, who feel that their tenure is insecure, with or without formal rights, are less likely to be interested in conserving resources or in making investments that improve the long-term productivity of land resources. Property rights are often problematic during the transition from extensive to intensive agricultural systems. Adequate Infrastructure and market access are essential for agricultural growth. Poor rural infrastructure is one of the most binding constraints for many poor countries (Fan and Hazell 2001; Fan and Chan-Kang 2005). Access to rural infrastructure has an important effect on the types of land uses and livelihood strategies that communities and households are able to pursue. Better road access to markets enhances opportunities for high-value agriculture products, enhancing the opportunities for off-farm employment and for engaging in non-farm businesses. On the other hand, construction of new roads in environmentally fragile areas can be destructive since they may attract new settlement and increase the profitability of less sustainable land uses.

Non-farm opportunities such as non-farm wage labour or self employment is already an important component of the livelihood strategies of rural people around the world, sometimes accounting for more than half of their income (Hazell and Wood 2008).

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