Drivers of LEDD

Drivers of LEDD in cropland: general

2012-05-01T12:09:14+00:00

Authors: Constantinos Kosmas, Katerina Kounalaki, Mina Karamesouti

{xtypo_alert}Editor's note 30 Apr 2012: Text source D111, section 3.2.{/xtypo_alert}

In »LEDD issues in cropland worldwide, we introduced and discussed the main LEDD issues which concern cropland worldwide, in the countries where the study sites are located and in the broader regions of the study sites themselves. These LEDD issues do not occur in isolation but are driven by interdependent environmental, economic and social processes, operating at multiple scales, singly and in combination with each other.

In this section of LEDDRIS we will discuss these key drivers at global, national and regional spatial levels. Policy drivers are discussed here only briefly. For a full discussion of policy drivers in the three land themes, please refer to »Policy context and policy recommendations for LEDD in cropland: general.

The MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2003, p.15) defines direct and indirect drivers of ecosystem change and their relationship as follows:

"A driver is any factor that changes an aspect of an ecosystem.
A direct driver unequivocally influences ecosystem processes and can therefore be identified and measured to differing degrees of accuracy.
An indirect driver operates more diffusely, often by altering one or more direct drivers, and its influence is established by understanding its effect on a direct driver.
Both indirect and indirect drivers often operate synergistically. Changes in land cover, for example, can increase the likelihood of introduction of alien invasive species. Similarly, technological advances can increase rates of economic growth."

In LEDDRA, the above distinction is adopted. Practically, direct drivers of LEDD are intentional and unintentional human activities and interventions that cause changes to the characteristics of the environment; i.e. they cause LEDD directly (e.g. land management practices, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.). Indirect drivers are those socio-economic, cultural, institutional, political and other forces that drive people to undertake activities that may or may not cause LEDD (e.g. demand for food, prices, policies, norms, property rights, etc.).

Table 1 below presents the direct and indirect drivers of LEDD in cropland. Drivers operate at all spatial levels (global, national, regional, local); their specific operational form depending on the level concerned.

Table 1. Direct and indirect drivers of LEDD in cropland

Type of driver	Examples
Direct drivers of LEDD
Changes in local land use and cover	Land abandonment; monoculture; unsustainable land management practices
Species introduction or removal	Introduction of new commercial crops; removal of vegetation cover during critical seasons of the year
Technology adaptation and use	Mechanisation
External inputs	Fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation
Harvest and resource consumption	Increasing or changing global food demand
Climate change	Increased frequency of extreme weather events
Other natural, physical and biological drivers	Loss of local knowledge of traditional soil conservation techniques
Indirect drivers of LEDD
Demographics	Changes in population structure and spatial distribution such as rural out-migration of young people; ageing populations in coastal areas etc.
Economic	Changes in national and per capita income; international trade flows; changes in global, regional and local market prices; macroeconomic policy
Socio-political	Democratization; changes in the role of women; changes in civil society such as the loss of traditional transhumance patterns etc.
Science and technology	Adoption of new technologies including biotechnology and information and communication technologies; changes in research funding;
Cultural and religious	Social norms surrounding consumption; materialism; changing religious practices etc.

Source: (Adapted from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2003)

The human population of the world is increasing by about 1.5 percent per year and is projected to double by the end of 21st Century. Increasing human population and increasing demands for food may require both expansion of land used for crop production and higher yield per unit area of croplands to provide enough food supplies for people (Grubler 1994). It has been estimated that deforestation and land conversion to agriculture was about 0.3 hectares for each additional person between 1700 and 1980 for the world in general, and 0.2 hectares per additional person between 1950 and 1980 for the developing countries (Grubler 1994). Using the figure of 0.2 hectares per person, it is estimated that an increase of 10x106 km² in the area of cropland would be needed for an additional 5 billion people in the 21st Century. The expansion in world food production during the twentieth-century has pushed agriculture into highly vulnerable land in many countries. In the former Soviet Union, expansion of cropland into grassland occurred between 1954 and 1960, in order to increase cereal production. Initially, grain production achieved impressive results, but yields declined rapidly, as a dust bowl developed (Brown 2005). As argued by Scherr and Yadav (2001) by 2020, land degradation may pose a serious threat to food production, particularly in poor and densely populated areas of the developing world. They emphasize the need for appropriate policies to encourage land-improving investments and better land management if developing countries are to sustainably meet the food needs of their populations.

Increasing world population also implies an increasing demand for housing, industry, roads, airports and recreation, amongst other resources and services. It is estimated that for every million people added to the world’s population, 40,000 hectares of land are needed for non-farm uses. Part of the land that will be used for urban development is currently fertile cropland (Brown 2005, Gardner 2001). Almost three-quarters of Europe's population live in urban and suburban areas, accounting for approximately 10 percent of the total EU land area. Recent analysis shows that more than 800,000 additional hectares of naturally productive land were lost as a result of development for homes, offices, shops, factories, roads and golf courses, adding six percent to the continent's urban areas between 1990 and 2000. The expected loss of arable land due to urbanisation between 1990 and 2020 is estimated to be 14 Mha, representing about one percent of world cropland. According to the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED 1992), the programme ‘Promoting Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development’ has been established with priority for maintaining and improving the capacity of potential agricultural lands to support increasing populations. However, there is great concern amongst various nations about the limitations of land resources, and the need to design mechanisms to ensure that land resources are used sustainably. For example, as reported by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP 2001), following significant losses in the nation's arable land, the Chinese government has strengthened controls relating to the use of arable land.

According to UN General Assembly, in 2010 climate change is expected to affect food availability and cropland areas. It is expected that by 2020, the yield of food in certain areas of Africa will have decreased by 50 percent, due to changes in air temperature, this without taking into account other climatic phenomena such as El Nino and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. Cramer and Soloman (1993) found that climate change significantly affects the area and spatial distribution of land that can potentially be used for crop production. According to Xiangming et al. (1997), among the various economic regions, the former Soviet Union and the Other OECD countries and regions have the largest potential land area available for expansion of croplands, while developing countries have little potential land area available for expansion. Climate change will affect soil and water resources on agricultural land through multiple pathways, as many climatic variables have important effects on land conservation (USDA 2003). Those variables include precipitation, temperature, wind, solar radiation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide, among others. Change in any single variable is also complex. It is estimated that agriculture is responsible for 33 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. Continuous atmospheric CO2 rise will have an increasing impact on the synthesis of carbohydrates and uptake of useful or harmful elements by crops, leading to so-called ‘hidden hunger’ and degradation of crop quality.

Global level drivers

Global level drivers, which affect agriculture around the world include: (a) international trade and globalization of markets; (b) world prices of agricultural and other products; (c) energy prices and. International agricultural trade has increased 10-fold since the 1960s owing to more open trade policies, market liberalization in many developing countries and advances in communications and transport systems. This has been used as an advantage for some developing countries to trade exports of non-traditional products such as flowers, fruits, and wine (Hazell and Wood 2008). Low product prices are favourable for consumers, but they are a disincentive for farmers.

Low prices have particularly discouraged investment and production in countries and regions that are not sharing technological advances and whose costs are not declining as fast as others. High energy prices can have various environmental impacts. In mechanised farming systems, high energy prices may encourage lower tillage practices reducing land degradation. On the other hand, high energy prices may contribute to additional deforestation and land degradation through greater use of wood, manures and crop by-products as sources of household energy in rural areas. Although international trade and the globalization of markets have enabled many developing countries to open up their agricultural markets to international trade in recent years, the protectionist agricultural polices of most OECD countries are increasingly recognized as discriminating against the well-being of farmers in developing countries. Developing country farmers not only have limited access to rich country agricultural markets, but also face domestic markets distorted by subsidized imports (Hazell and Wood 2008).

National level drivers

National level drivers affect agriculture at the national level, although factors such as poor infrastructure and market access may lead to spatially differentiated impacts. The following drivers have been considered as globally important, affecting cropland and land use change: (a) per capita income and urbanization; (b) changing market structures and; (c) shifts in public policy (Hazell and Wood 2008). An increase in per capita income leads to major transformations within the agricultural sector. Agriculture’s share in national income and employment falls as countries grow richer and diversify into manufacturing and service sector activities, resulting in progressively less importance of the agricultural sector for national economic growth. Furthermore, as per capita incomes rise, labour becomes more expensive relative to land and capital, and small farms begin to be squeezed out by larger and more capitalised farms. This also leads to an exodus of agricultural workers and the adoption of more capital intensive technologies. As a result, farms become larger, more commercial and more specialised in higher-value products (Lipton 2005).

Market structures are changing through trade liberalization and globalization. As a result, developing country farmers are increasingly being challenged to compete in markets that are much more consumer driven and demanding in terms of type, quality and safety of agricultural products. These changes offer new opportunities to farmers who can successfully access and compete in such transformed markets, but they are also a serious threat to those who cannot (Hazell and Wood 2008).

Evidence on the net impact of public policy reforms on agricultural growth remains mixed (Fan and Rao 2003). The removal of subsidies has made some key inputs (e.g. fertilizer) prohibitively expensive for many farms, and the removal of price stabilisation programmes has exposed farmers to more volatile farm gate prices. These problems are especially pressing for small farms located in more remote regions with poor infrastructure and market access. These policy-related driving forces are particularly challenging for Africa and South Asia, where small farms account for over 80 percent of total farms and 40 percent or more of total agricultural output.

Local level drivers

Local level drivers are specific to each local geographical area and to different types of agricultural production system. Local level drivers can be distinguished as the following (a) poverty, (b) population pressure, (c) population health, (d) technology, (e) property rights, (f) infrastructure and (g) market access.

Poverty is an important driving force behind land degradation, but it appears more likely to occur in poor-quality and fragile agricultural lands, especially those with high and increasing population densities. Worsening degradation contributes to lower incomes and deepening poverty. Poor people are generally less able to monitor land degradation (Mink 1993). They are also more likely than those with higher incomes to have large families, lack investment capital, face insecure property rights have limited access to suitable technologies and are less informed about the impacts of their actions.

Rural population growth is still high in many, particularly poorer, countries despite migration and rapid urbanisation. However, how this impacts on agricultural productivity and environmental management is still a matter of some debate. Population growth can lead to expansion of cropland in marginal lands, leading to further land degradation and decline in per capita output (Malthus 1993).

Technology has proven to be the most important driver of agricultural productivity. The way that new technologies are designed and managed has important environmental impacts on agriculture. Poorly designed or inappropriately used technologies can lead to increased production but can be accompanied by land degradation. New technologies have often been developed to secure short-term profitability for farmers but without consideration of their impact on longer-term sustainability. For example, the construction of modern irrigation systems without adequate provision for water drainage can lead to water-logging and salinisation problems. Well-designed technologies can make important contributions to productivity growth while also improving environmental outcomes (Hazell and Wood 2008).

The property rights that farmers have over natural resources can be important in determining whether they take a short- or long-term perspective in managing resources (Hazell and Wood 2008). Farmers, who feel that their tenure is insecure, with or without formal rights, are less likely to be interested in conserving resources or in making investments that improve the long-term productivity of land resources. Property rights are often problematic during the transition from extensive to intensive agricultural systems. Adequate Infrastructure and market access are essential for agricultural growth. Poor rural infrastructure is one of the most binding constraints for many poor countries (Fan and Hazell 2001; Fan and Chan-Kang 2005). Access to rural infrastructure has an important effect on the types of land uses and livelihood strategies that communities and households are able to pursue. Better road access to markets enhances opportunities for high-value agriculture products, enhancing the opportunities for off-farm employment and for engaging in non-farm businesses. On the other hand, construction of new roads in environmentally fragile areas can be destructive since they may attract new settlement and increase the profitability of less sustainable land uses.

Non-farm opportunities such as non-farm wage labour or self employment is already an important component of the livelihood strategies of rural people around the world, sometimes accounting for more than half of their income (Hazell and Wood 2008).

Drivers of LEDD in cropland: Greece and Messara Valley

2012-05-01T12:33:02+00:00

Authors: Constantinos Kosmas, Katerina Kounalaki, Mina Karamesouti

{xtypo_alert}Editor's note 30 Apr 2012: Text source D111 section 3.2{/xtypo_alert}

The socio-economic drivers of land and ecosystem degradation and desertification (LEDD) in Greece include rural migration, farm size and land fragmentation, CAP and other (e.g. regional development and spatial planning) policies, higher profitability of irrigating farming, low prices for agricultural products, coastal, urban and tourism development and changing climatic conditions.

Rural migration

Large scale migration from rural to urban areas occurred in Greece after the 1950s. Urban populations have increased in the last few decades while rural population has continued to decrease (Figure 1). Rural migration has had a significant impact on cropland and land management practices. As a result of out-migration, land was either abandoned or rented to those farmers remaining in rural areas. Under such conditions, the main concern of the land user was the over-exploitation of the land without applying any land protection measures. In some cases farmers deliberately used fire to eradicate perennial vegetation and stimulate the growth of more palatable annual vegetation for grazing animals (Kosmas et al. 2000).

{tip } {/tip}

Figure 1. Changes in urban and rural population between 1985 and 2010 in Greece. Source: (Greek National Statistical Service 2010)

Land terracing was a common practice for soil conservation in hilly areas. Stones from remote areas were transported by animals and used for building walls in selected sites and then these walls were filled with soil from the surrounding area and planted with olives, cereals and vines. As a result of rural out-migration, many of these terraces have been abandoned, particularly those cultivated with cereals, and in some cases with olives and vines due to: (a) difficulties in accessibility and cultivation with machinery; (b) low prices for agricultural products and; (c) high maintenance costs. Once abandoned, the collapse of these terraced slopes may be rapid and soil can be easily washed out by surface water runoff and gravity, resulting in high rates of land degradation.

In the last few decades the landscape of Crete has experienced a significant and rapid rise in urbanisation and mass tourism. The total number of tourists in Crete exceeded 2 million per year (3.5 times greater than the domestic population) and this number may double by 2025 (Chartzoulakis et al. 2001). In some dry areas, particularly along the coast, farmers have sold their land to developers for the construction of tourist infrastructure. Low incomes from farming, and the high prices offered for tourist activities, motivates farmers to change land use, reshaping landscape, and altering resources. Furthermore, the population of Crete has increased in the last four decades (Figure 2 below). The rate of increase was especially high in the area of Heraklion, with the seasonal immigrant population reaching 601,131 in 2001, putting significant pressure on land for transformation from agriculture to residential or industrial uses.

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Figure 2. Population change between 1951 and 2001 in Crete. Source: (Graph compiled by the authors based on data from the Greek National Statistical Service)

Farm size and land fragmentation

Greek agriculture is based on small-sized, family-owned dispersed units, while the extent of cooperative organisation has stayed comparatively low despite efforts to increase this in the last 30 years, mainly through European Union incentives. Based on EUROSTAT data (2008) the average size of a holding in Greece 5.6 ha. Although the average farm size in Greece has increased since 1960, there has been no decline in the percentage of farms in the smallest-sized group of 2.8 ha. The continued existence of these small farms can be attributed to part-time farming, and to the farm-family life cycle. The average farm size across regions is found to be negatively related to population pressure, positively related to industrialization, and positively related to mechanisation (Lianos and Parliarou 1986). Data collected during the EU research project DESERTLINKS showed that land fragmentation is high, especially in hilly areas ranging from 4-8 parcels per holding. Farm size and land fragmentation is higher in Crete compared with the national average (Beopoulos and Vlachos 2005).

Farm size and land fragmentation is an important driver of LEDD. Based on results from the EU research project DESIRE (contract No: 037046) (Kosmas et al. 2011 unpublished data), as farm size decreases, land fragmentation increases and the sensitivity of the land to degradation and desertification also increases. At small farm sizes, farmers tend to avoid applying traditional measures of soil erosion control, such as contour farming, strip cropping, vegetated water ways, etc. Large farm size can have an impact on the shape of the farm such as uniform fields with less boundary features and isolated trees, as well as on the degree of intensification of operations as capital replaces labour, which enables farmers to produce higher output from the land. Intensification of agriculture may lead to ground water pollution, soil compaction, etc.

The Common Agricultural Policy

Greece joined the EEC (European Economical Community) in 1981 and Greek agriculture became subject to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Up until 1992, the aim of the CAP was to increase production, and to provide cheap rural products accompanied by reasonable rural incomes. The consequences of the CAP in Greece were the intensification of agricultural production, extensive mechanisation of crop production, creation of monocultures, such as cotton, large surpluses of some products, the disappearance of some unique Greek plant varieties which were replaced by hybrids, and the loss of the rural balance with its self-sufficiency in agricultural products (Vlachos 2008). Greek farmers have re-orientated crop production towards the globalised market and Greek agriculture is no longer based solely on the needs of the country or the European Union. This has resulted in the orientation of Greek agriculture to three main crops; olives, cotton, and tobacco. As a result, the country has simultaneously lost its self-sufficiency in products such as cereals, fruits, and vegetables.

The CAP, through its structural policies, supported an adequate income to farmers, contributing to the development of regional economies and reform of landscapes, particularly in less favoured areas. In addition, subsidies allocated under the CAP accelerated the intensification and specialisation process in agriculture. Subsidies, allocated for cereals based on the area cultivated encouraged farmers to keep highly degraded land under cultivation, or to expand cultivation into marginal areas, even though crop yields were low, resulting in accelerated erosion and land degradation (Louloudis et al. 2000; Briassoulis 2003). This has been enhanced by the simultaneous effect of regional development and infrastructure policies that reinforced the impacts of the CAP.

CAP has significantly affected cropland areas and land use types in Crete. Many marginal areas under natural vegetation were cleared and olive groves have been planted. These areas become particularly vulnerable to erosion due to inadequate soil protection from erosion and reduction of infiltration rates which follows loss of organic matter content and soil structure decline. Widespread olive production in steep hilly areas in combination with a lack of water and grazing has resulted in desertification problems. Drip irrigation has been expanded across hilly and mountainous areas with negative impacts on water resources. Although the amount of water required for irrigation of olive plantations is relatively low compared with arable crops, there has been a dramatic over-exploitation of aquifers accompanied by water quality deterioration (Briassoulis 2003; Wilson and Juntti 2005; Juntti and Wilson 2005). In addition, exploitation of natural resources has been significantly affected by regional development, infrastructure, spatial planning policies and the implementation of Integrated Mediterranean Programmes.

Higher profitability of irrigation farming

The higher profitability of irrigating farming and the low profitability of dry farming due to climatic conditions (low rainfall, high evapotranspiration rates) has significantly influenced farmers to expand arable land and change land management practices in Greece. Expansion of agricultural land was undertaken in natural areas by clearing vegetation or changing from dry farming to irrigation farming, resulting in many cases in land degradation problems. In addition, intensive farming has increased the use of mechanisation and agro-chemicals and the selection of new plant varieties which have negatively affected water availability and quality (Karavitis and Kerkides 2002). These changing practices have negatively affected soil structure, soil organic matter content and biodiversity, and contributed to increased land degradation and desertification risks (Greek National Committee for Combating Desertification 2001).

In Crete, as in the rest of the country, the higher profitability of irrigated farming has led to over-exploitation of water resources. The amount of water allocated for irrigation is estimated to be 82 percent of total consumption. Water consumption in general in Crete has increased more than four percent per year (Angelakis et al. 1998). Most of the total water consumption is used in agriculture for the irrigation of olive groves, vineyards and vegetables. The increased demand of water, either for urban or agricultural use, cannot always be met, despite adequate precipitation. Water imbalance is often experienced, due to temporal and spatial variations of precipitation, increased water demand during the summer months and the difficulty of transporting water due to the mountainous areas.

Low prices for agricultural products

Although Greece has a clear competitive advantage in the production and marketing of food products (mainly fruit and certain vegetables), the food industry has been slow in adjusting to the EU’s competitive standards. Relatively high prices, low quality, shortfalls of high demand products and low levels of marketing standardised quantities resulted in decreasing shares in the major international markets (Miliakos 2006). Only recently has the industry started addressing problems such as storage and packaging, advertising and promotion campaigns, brand names and contracts with large retail chains. Greek agricultural products are influenced by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This causes higher producer and consumer prices in many agricultural products. However, producer prices still show significant variations due to: (a) limited transmission of CAP institutional prices; (b) the fact that some agricultural products are not regulated by the CAP and; (c) unexpected changes in climatic conditions (Apergis 2003).

Olive groves cover large areas of Greece. In addition, Crete is the main olive oil producer in the country. Areas covered by olive groves are mainly sensitive to land degradation and desertification. Furthermore, Greece is the third largest producer worldwide, with a 16 percent share of the international market in the production of olive oil and is second largest at the European level in the production of table olives (Miliakos 2006). EU regulation prohibits the sale of olive oil in unbranded packs greater than 5 litres. The domestic market for standardised olive oil is controlled by a few large firms and agricultural cooperatives. The existing organisation of marketing cannot effectively promote olive oil to world markets, resulting in low prices for producers.

Low prices of agricultural products, and strong competition from other countries, especially for olive oil and citrus fruits, has greatly decreased farm incomes. Under such conditions, farmers have adopted different cultivation practices in order to continue to receive subsidies, or have changed to more profitable crops, even though the soil conditions may not be suitable. Other practices include the clearing of natural vegetation to grow olives or vines in order to increase income, with a resulting increase in land degradation and desertification. Furthermore, because of low farm incomes, investment in soil and land protection measures is not always a priority.

Urbanization of coastal areas

The recent rapid socio-economic growth in Greece (rural migration, second homes, tourism development) and modernisation (mainly in agriculture, transport networks, and infrastructures) have brought radical changes to Greek coastal landscapes. Public works, transport infrastructures and the expansion of urban areas has had a significant impact on the natural environment, creating a rural-urban continuum (Beriatos 2008). Greece, with a total population of approximately 11 million, is characterized by its high coastal concentration. The population living on the relatively narrow strip of land one or two kilometres wide is approximately 3.5 million, representing 33 percent of the total population. If the population living in areas up to 50 km from the coast is also included, then the coastal population is estimated to about 8.8 million or 85 percent of the total. The total urbanized coastal area is estimated to cover around 1315 km2, or 1.31 percent of the total land area. Projections for coastal urban growth indicate a further increase in the mid and long term. The process of population concentration in the coastal zones was initiated in the late 20th Century. It was promoted by a number of public incentives that where in favour of rapid economic development following the end of World War II.

The natural and cultural assets of coastal areas attract up to 11 million tourists each year (90 percent of all tourist activities and recreation are located on the coast). As a result, tourist activities account for a large proportion of the land use in coastal areas. Urbanisation and tourist development in Greece has often been undertaken on an illegal basis, or without proper planning to protect productive agricultural land.

The concentration of the population in the coastal zone has caused a significant rise in soil sealing, accompanied by intensification of agriculture in the lowlands, abandonment of agricultural terracing land, an increase in the number and frequency of forest fires, overexploitation of water resources, soil contamination, soil salinisation, water pollution, coastal erosion, flooding of lowlands, and the disappearance of wetlands.

Climate change

Agriculture is significantly affected by climate variability and extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods and severe storms. Human actions have already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall, levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), and ground level ozone. While food production may benefit from a warmer climate, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose future challenges for farmers (Karavitis and Kerkides 2002).

Climate change will have a considerable and negative impact on many sectors in Greece. Climatic conditions are the most important physical environmental characteristics affecting water resources and land management practices. Under semi-arid or dry sub-humid climatic conditions accompanied by irregular rainfall with long dry period and high summer temperatures, farmers move to less water consuming crops or adjust cultivation practices in order to store more rain water into the soil or to reduce soil water evaporation by tillage. Such practices in hilly areas can greatly contribute to high erosion rates due to surface water runoff and tillage operations. Farmers consider that understory vegetation competes with crops for water resources, so they remove it using agri-chemicals or they cultivate the soil (Metzidakis et al. 2006).

Drivers of LEDD in cropland: Italy and Alento

2012-05-01T12:33:42+00:00

Authors: Giovanni Quaranta, Rosanna Salvia

{xtypo_alert}Editor's note 30 Apr 2012: Text source D111 section 3.2{/xtypo_alert}

Tables 1 and 2 below show the list of LEDD issues, both in Italy and in the Alento study site, with their main direct and indirect drivers. According to the MEA (2005), direct drivers are considered those related to specific human activities while indirect drivers are those that lead (drive) people to undertake those specific activities.

Table 1. LEDD Issues in Italy

LEDD issues	Drivers
	Direct	Indirect
Soil erosion	Mono-cropping farming leaving the soil surface unprotected during the peak of erosivity rain	Decrease of agricultural prices
	Ploughing direction	Shape and size of land parcels
	Steep slope cultivation plot	Climate change leading to extreme events
	Rain intensity	Depopulation Cropland fire No off-farm job opportunities in rural areas Farmers ageing and no young generation taking over the farm Rural poverty Pattern of agricultural policies
Soil compaction	Mechanisation (increasing use of heavy machinery)	Agricultural wages increase Lack of local wage workers
Desertification	Rain erosivity	Decrease of agricultural prices
	Over exploitation of surface and groundwater	Shape and size of land parcels
	Mono-cropping farming leaving the soil surface unprotected during the peak of erosivity rain	Climate change leading to extreme events
	Ploughing direction	Depopulation
	Steep slope cultivation plot	Cropland fire No off-farm job opportunities in rural areas
	Urban sprawl	Farmers ageing and no young generation taking over the farm
	Tourism expansion	Rural poverty Pattern of agricultural policies
Salinisation	Groundwater abstraction	Food consumption changes
Loss of soil organic matter	Land use change Intensive agriculture Deep ploughing
Sealing	Intensification of agriculture (greenhouses)
	Urban sprawl	Increase of population living in plain and coastal areas
	Mass-tourism expansion Network connections and infrastructure facilities development
Water pollution	Mineral and organic fertilization	Intensive and specialized agriculture
	Pesticides Acid rain Polluted irrigation water
Biodiversity loss	Mono-cropping farming	Standardization of products induced by global advertising
	Use of global varieties	Fix standard required by food processors and distribution
Flooding	Soil sealing Soil compaction
Landslides	Lack of surface water control	Land abandonment Fire

In the following section we discuss all of the direct and indirect drivers, mentioned above, that mainly influence cropland in Italy and in the Alento study site.

Direct drivers

Monocultures leaving the soil surface vulnerable to rain erosion. It is the result of an over simplification of cropping systems mainly due to strictly economic considerations and a short term approach of the farmers led by the CAP and international trade agreements. A report by the National Official Statistics (ISTAT 2010), which surveyed the annual cropland in Italy and provides a clear picture of the distribution of farming practices in Italy, shows that monoculture farming, considered the most environmentally damaging practice, involves 16.2 percent of annual cropland. Monoculture, mainly cereals, leaves the soil surface unprotected especially during the highest peak of rain erosivity.

Ploughing direction. According to field shape and slope, soil can be tilled in various directions, parallel or perpendicular to the contour lines or in oblique lines. Shallow tillage of soil reduces effects on soil erosion in all ploughing directions, while contour line is the less damaging tillage operation for steep slopes.

Cultivation of steep slopes. Due to its geomorphology, Italy still presents a wide range of steep slope cultivation exposing the surface to the direct impact of raindrops. Very often planting is done up and down the hillsides, so that the inter-row space is left bare providing ideal conditions for rill erosion downhill. There is also little attempt to cover the soil by using mulches or cover crops, particularly during the inter-crop period.

Rain intensity. The soil can be dispersed by the raindrops depending on soil structure and aggregate content. Soil movement by rainfall (raindrop splash) is usually greatest and most noticeable during short-duration, high-intensity storms.

Mechanization (increasing use of heavy machinery). As labour becomes more and more expensive and technology improves, most agricultural operations are mechanized. Innovation technologies provide farms with all kinds of machinery increasing the total number of passages on the soil surface.

Rain erosivity. Soil erosion by running water occurs where the intensity and duration of rainstorms exceeds the capacity of the soil to infiltrate the rain. According to the most prevalent cropping system in Italy, a great part of which is dominated by rain fed agriculture, rain erosivity plays a very crucial role in determining soil erosion rates.

Overexploitation of surface and groundwater. Italian agriculture’s share in total water use is about 60 percent (OECD 2008), reflecting the prominent role of irrigation, with two-thirds of water drawn from surface water sources. Excessive extraction of groundwater for irrigation occurs in the South (often illegally) which, coupled with high losses through leakage, have led to water shortages in at least three months every year. Estimated water losses across the national irrigation network are 30-50 percent of water withdrawals (OECD 2008). This is due to both poor infrastructure maintenance and inadequate technology. Nevertheless, there are indications of improvements in irrigation water management toward using more efficient water application technologies, such as drip emitters (used on over 20 percent of the total irrigated area in 2007) (OECD 2008).

Urban sprawl. In a country like Italy, where mountain areas occupy approximately 30 percent and hilly areas over 53 percent of the total land area, urban expansion is rapidly covering the plains which occupy only 18 percent of national land (Romano et al. 2008). In addition, over 43 percent of the coastline is completely urbanised mainly due to tourism development, 28 percent is partially urbanised and less than 29 percent is still free from construction (Romano et al. 2008). At present, Italy has no national law regulating land consumption and the topic is hardly considered in regional and town planning legislation.

Tourism expansion. Construction related to tourism development (hotels, airports, roads, vacation homes) causes the greatest negative impact on the fragile coastal and marine ecosystems in Italy, as in the whole Mediterranean. During the summer months water supplies problems are exacerbated by tourist flows as water is used for hotels, swimming pools and golf courses. Periodic water shortages already exist in many regions and are likely to spread and increase. This not only is an environmental threat but poses many problems for the tourism industry itself as the shortages could lead to structural problems in the long term. Throughout the Southern part of Italy water use conflicts are spreading and worsening.

Groundwater abstraction. Saline intrusion and groundwater salinisation are widespread along the coastlines of Italy due to over-abstraction. In particular agriculture plays a major role in water extraction and consumption especially in Mediterranean coastal areas where intensive irrigated horticulture is widespread. Nevertheless, in many areas a large contribution to aquifer overexploitation is due to the industrial and residential sectors and, seasonally, to tourism. The problem is even more evident in the drought prone coastlines of Southern Italy.

Land use change. Although deforestation has been reversed in recent years, in past decades forest has been converted to cropland, meadow and pasture lands.

Intensive agriculture. Besides the traditional geographical divisions in agriculture (North and South) there are new divisions which have radically changed the face of Italian agriculture. For example, the gap in production between flat land and hilly areas has widened with flat land becoming ever more intensively farmed whilst hilly and mountainous areas are increasingly abandoned and marginalized. The intensity of production and average productivity in areas of flat land has reached around four times that of mountain areas, whilst it is estimated that over 50 percent of Italian agricultural production comes from areas of flat land which occupy just 30 percent of Italian agricultural surface (ISMEA 2011). Traditional practices (especially the integration of manures) have been abandoned for a long time leading to a generally impoverishment of OM soil content.

In intensive farmland areas, predominantly used for greenhouse farming or covered with plastic mulch films, the impervious layers form a vertical barrier between the pedosphere, the atmosphere and the hydrosphere. This phenomenon is fuelled by the continuous reduction of agricultural prices which push farmers to produce out of season in order to get better prices. Greenhouses both heated and unheated are largely covering most of the southern Italy plains were most favourable conditions contribute to obtain early production.

Deep ploughing. According to the extensive survey carried out by ISTAT (ISTAT 2010) ploughing is the most common tillage method with 53.7 percent of farms favouring this method. The survey also shows that in terms of tillage depths, the most common depth is between 20 and 40 centimetres (29.9 percent).

The most environmentally friendly tillage method is of course minimum or no-tillage which exerts the least environmental pressure on land. Minimum or no-tillage is favoured by 13.3 percent of farms and in more than half of these cases it is used for the tillage of sloping land as, unlike other methods, this type of tillage presents few or no problems on sloping land. For this reason minimum or no-tillage is relatively frequent in farms found in mountainous areas (21.5 percent), while ploughing direction becomes a critical issue for those areas. In fact when slopes become steep the only possible direction to avoid machines overturning is vertical that can accelerate surface water flow exacerbating soil erosion.

Road networks. In Italy, due to its particular geomorphology, the diffusion of road network and infrastructure facilities is assuming worrying proportions in the large plain areas, where urbanization is coupled with intensive farming. The problem of soil loss due to urbanization is a particularly serious one and a matter of concern since it strongly compromises large areas of land, which are often characterized by soils with a high agricultural value. According to the Environmental Yearbook (ISPRA 2009) the comparison between CORINE Land Cover data sets (1990 and 2000) has led to the identification of a trend in land use, even though the minimum mapping unit limit of 25 ha does not clearly show the development of scattered urban centres and of the minor road network. This shows there is a progressive reduction of areas destined for agricultural use (-1.6 percent), a recovery of forest or semi-natural soils (+1.0 percent) and an increase of urbanized areas (+0.6 percent), especially on the coast.

Mineral and organic fertilisers and pesticides. According to the Italian Environmental Yearbook (ISPRA 2009), intensive farming practices, making abundant use of pesticides, chemical fertilisers and manure, can result in an excess of nutritional elements (N, P and K), in accumulation of heavy metals and in the spread of biocide substances. In particular, an excess of nutritional elements can result in serious groundwater pollution and eutrophication of water ecosystems, since nitrates are highly soluble in water and not easily retained by soil.

The observed trend of excess nitrates has gradually decreased in almost all Italian regions in the last decades, thanks to the measures taken to comply with the current EC legislation. In some cases, the use of sewage sludge in farming (that can produce significant quantities of hazardous substances if combined with nutrients and organic carbon) has raised concern when it is not correctly managed and controlled.

Finally, in specific geological contexts, the high levels of some contaminants can have a natural origin. In fact, an elevated concentration of heavy metals in the soil can be determined by the chemical characteristics of the rock/parent material. Therefore, in order to identify eventual human contamination, action needs to be taken to correctly define the soil’s nutrient content.

Polluted irrigation water. In Italy the use of increasingly less adequate water in agriculture, salty waters, civil and industrial treated water, is increasing due to both reduction in quantity of water for irrigation and expansion of irrigated crops.

Use of global crop varieties. Globalization and agricultural intensification have diminished the use of traditional crop varieties, leading, in some cases, to their extinction. The adopted crop varieties, that dominate agriculture globally are, in some extent, imposed both by productivity needs and policy requirements.

Lack of surface water control. Soil and water control measures and infrastructure works, such as terraces, are liable to collapse if not maintained and this lack of maintenance consequently increases the risk of erosion and landslides.

Indirect drivers

Decrease in agricultural prices. The volatility of food prices represents a problem for the poorest consumers and agriculture, particularly that which is highly dependent on external production inputs and that, although with capital availability, has no or a low degree of autonomy in production decisions. Farms, therefore, which have industrialized and "streamlined" systems of production have almost completely lost sovereignty over their production decisions. As price takers they suffer the prices of production inputs and simultaneously the trend of prices of products at farm gate.

Climate change leading to extreme events. The effects of climate change in Italy and the subsequent impact on cropland can be summarized as follows (Ferrara 2007). The increase in annual average temperatures in Italy are in line with those registered globally (0.6°C – 0.8°C over the last 100 years). Minimum temperatures have seen a greater increase than maximum temperatures (especially in the North) and winter temperatures have seen a greater increase than summer temperatures (especially in the South). Summer heat waves have increased in terms of duration and intensity. However, winter cold waves have decreased in frequency and intensity.

Amount of total rainfall has decreased throughout the national territory with higher reductions in central and southern regions. The total number of days of rainfall has fallen by 14 percent over the last 50 years; all regions report a trend of more intense but shorter spells of rainfall. Dry spells are also on the increase, northern regions report longer dry spells in winter whilst southern regions report longer dry spells in summer.

Total water resources are currently estimated at 50 billion cubic metres per annum. Distribution is uneven; North Italy (41 percent), Central Italy (26 percent), South Italy (20 percent), Islands (6 percent). Water resources are to be further reduced due to decreases in rainfall, an increase in evapotranspiration and increased pumping. Water resource distribution will also become more uneven with greater reductions in the South and on the islands and slighter reductions in the North and central regions. Degradation of soil quality is reported especially in the South, although degradation is not solely caused by climatic factors.

Depopulation. Agricultural intensification on the plains and land abandonment in mountainous areas has led to an increasing depopulation of mountainous areas and marginal rural areas whilst population levels in areas of flat land with more amenities are on the increase.

The last two censuses (ISTAT 1990-2000) show an increase in depopulation and abandonment of farming shown by a constant decline in population numbers, in UAA and in number of farms. The total rural population has fallen by one percent, with highs of two percent in the most disadvantaged areas, whilst national population has increased by 0.4 percent. In many cases these areas have very little economic activity and so land abandonment and depopulation are on the rise which in time can cause hydro geological instabilities, problems with landscape preservation and desertification, especially in mountainous areas which are often home to important ecosystems in need of protection. This phenomenon is only partially mitigated by the in-migration of temporary foreign workers.

Cropland fire. Fires that destroy not only forest but also cropland are increasingly becoming an issue. The number of forest fires reported nationally is one of the indicators used by ISPRA in its Environmental Data Yearbook published annually. On the basis of the data provided from 1970 to 2008 (data from State Forest Fire Agency – Service Archive AIB), the indictor shows annual figures of surface terrain affected by fire (wooded and un-wooded areas), as well as total number of fires. A detailed study of this vast data collection shows that forest fire rates are by no means predictable or steady, there are years of very high incident rates followed by long periods of inactivity. One especially critically period came in the mid 1980s, in the following years incident levels remained consistently high, then came a progressive reduction in numbers until 2006, followed by a fresh outbreak in 2007 (227,523 ha) and again a period of relative reduction in 2008.

Lack of off-farm work opportunities in rural areas. Off farm job opportunities cover the need for additional activities in order to maintain a viable farm. Some areas might be susceptible to the occurrence of marginalization if they have a high share of farms without sufficient off-farm income generating activities that also have insufficient activities to meet the requirements to fulfil the standards on Annual Work Unit.

Ageing farmers and a lack of younger farmers entering agriculture. Depopulation of rural areas has lead to an increasingly ageing farming community: in 2007 only 6.9 percent of farms were run by farmers under 40, over 44 percent were run by farmers over 65; young farmers represent only 16 percent of the total, that is one out of six farmers is considered a young farmer (ISTAT Study of Farm Structure and Production 2005 and 2007).

Decades of industrialization and rural exodus have impoverished the demographics of rural areas especially the younger population. Although the agricultural workforce has decreased in all Western European countries the situation in Italy is peculiar because of the short time frame in which the numbers fell (from the end of the 1950s to the beginning of the 1990s) (CNEL 1985) and because of the knock-on effects this has had on the socio-demographic makeup of Italy’s population and the extent of urbanisation. Over time, the migration of farm-workers to other job sectors has lead to the full-scale depopulation of rural areas. Rural exodus most commonly concerns younger members of the population thus shaping the demographics of the agricultural sector. After the Second World War, farm abandonment was caused solely by the migration of the workforce from the primary sector to the industrial sector. However, in recent years, economic viability has strongly motivated farm abandonment. Farmers wishing to take-over or start a new business are facing unsustainable set-up costs, increasingly saturated and competitive markets, scarce resources (land and water) and problems relating to poor infrastructure, isolation and reduced supply of services in rural areas.

It should also be noted that statistics on the age of farmers do not take into consideration the presence of younger farmers who effectively run their own farms but are not formally the farm-owner (Barbero 1988). Farms are usually only officially handed over after death, due to various socio-cultural factors such as: traditional pyramid family structure in rural communities; farm-owners’ emotional attachment to their land; and a legacy dating back to the times of agrarian reform which are still vivid in the minds of small Italian farmers. However, it should also be said that often young people are unwilling to take on the responsibility of running a farm as they are already employed in other sectors or because the farm cannot guarantee a sufficient income.

The sparse population of young people has a negative impact on the agricultural sector not only in terms of the effects of land abandonment but also in terms of the loss of entrepreneurial dynamism. Farms run by young people are on average larger than others, as rented land is added to that already owned. The amount of time dedicated to farm work (on average over 105 days a year) suggests these farms are highly specialized in livestock breeding and horticulture. Farms run by young famers are also those which require the least agricultural labourers – family members and/or full-time labourers, this underlines the initial difficulty young people have in taking on a farm. Young farmers increasingly run diversified farms, 39 percent of farms have their own processing systems. Furthermore, farms run by young farmers tend to cater for agri-tourism, grow organic crops; use non-traditional farming practices and exploit modern technology resources such as the internet (CNEL 2004; EURISPES 2004).

After years of rural exodus and resettlement in the agricultural areas nearest urban and industrialized areas we are now seeing a new trend: the arrival of foreign workers to the Italian countryside. The principal reasons for employing migrant workers are: number of older or elderly farmers who require more farm labourers, demand for seasonal farm labourers or longer-term employment like livestock farming and cheap housing, at least in areas where the countryside hasn’t been urbanised. Buying or renting land is very difficult for foreign workers so, at least in the short term, the presence of migrant workers does not create new farms but rather helps contain production costs and help make existing farms more competitive.

Rural poverty. Rural poverty has become an increasingly pressing problem in recent years. It contributes to the feeling of indifference amongst the younger generations towards farming and also fuels depopulation. Family income for famers is, in fact, the lowest of all sectors (industry, public sector, Service industry) and many farmers are finding it increasingly difficult to meet increased costs of living.

Agricultural policies. This section contains a summary of the main patterns of agricultural policies. These policies are more fully described in »Policy context and policy recommendations for LEDD in cropland: general.

By far the most important policies affecting rural areas and cropland are Common Agricultural Policies (CAP) and Rural Development policies. CAP policies have been under continuous reform, first through the MacSharry reform, then Agenda 2000 and finally the Fischler reform in 2003. The result is a substantial modification in the agricultural subsidy system and a progressive reduction in grants allocated to farmers. The autonomy of choice of crops for farmers, resulting from the introduction of single farm payments based on previous subsides received, (decoupling), is accompanied by a set of strict environmental criteria (eco-conditionality) which must be met in order to receive the total payment of subsidies. Regulatory bodies identify direct aid to income with the acknowledgment and attribution of a “right to public subsidy” (title) transferable to other farms based on pre-established criteria. Alongside these measures, the recent EU provisions provide for the maintenance, in some agricultural sectors, of a direct dependency on production subsidies and acknowledgment of coupled awards. It is perhaps too soon to establish what effects the progressive dismantling of public subsidies, together with increasing liberalization of agricultural markets will have on the sector. It is plausible that the competitive pressure exerted on other areas of production will lead, on the one hand, to an intensification of productive processes paired with a decline in social production relationships (reduction of cost of labour, need for migrant workforce, mechanization of production) and, on the other, to an important increase in the demise of farming activities in areas already suffering from depopulation, although this should, in part, be compensated by territorial and farming diversification supported by rural development policies. It is undeniable, however, that the obligations set out for agricultural production and, especially, the possibility for farmers to decide their own crop cultivation, allow farmers to productively use resources and have the final say on viable sustained productivity.

Agricultural wage increase / Lack of local wage workers. As the exodus from the agricultural sector becomes an increasing phenomenon in Italy, people willing to work in agriculture become fewer and fewer. As a consequence wages get higher and are not necessarily linked to farm profitability. The cost of labour in agriculture has also been exacerbated by the high cost social security (up to 45 percent of total labour cost) although this has recently been mitigated by immigrant workers.

Changes in patterns of food consumption. The key factors in the evolution of food consumption habits are:

major socio-demographic and life-style changes;
the emergence of more knowledgeable consumers and a greater focus on diet;
income and purchasing power disparities among Italian households.

The primary socio-demographic trends in Italy prompting this shift in food expenditure habits are; the aging of society, the movement towards single nucleus households, new lifestyle choices, and a growing multi-ethnic culture. Another significant driver of this change is household composition. Recent demographic trends have sparked a change in eating habits, more single-person households, coupled with the spread of a new family model has led to a greater tendency to eat outside the home and an increase in the consumption of pre-cooked and single-serving meals. The second factor to consider is the emergence of a more knowledgeable consumer base, one that places greater emphasis on food quality.

The final factor to be considered is the disparity in income distribution, which is reflected in the purchasing power of Italian individuals and households. Italy has a high Gini index score showing considerable inequalities in income distribution (Esposti et al. 2007). This gap in income and the difficulty of achieving higher average incomes – which would somewhat close the existing gap – leave the typical dietary habits of higher income consumers (who expect more services, are more health and food safety conscious, and are prepared to spend more on differentiated and quality products) at risk of remaining a minority share of the market.

The income disparities that exist in different areas of the country and the higher poverty rate in the South suggest that price continues to be an important factor in deciding whether to purchase a food product. This is all the more true in Italian population bracket considered low-income or near the poverty line.

The elasticity of demand in relation to the price of preferred foods is also connected with the type of food. It is interesting to note that, according the ISTAT household consumption survey (ISTAT I consumi delle famiglie 2009), 15 percent of households, under the pressure of inflation, chose to buy lower-quality products. This means that strong inflationary pressure causes consumers to make important changes in the type of foods purchased, which can impact the propensity to consume higher quality products. Basically, food consumption patterns depend upon two factors: quality and price. In Italy, this is also related to the co-existence of great prosperity and poverty.

Intensive and specialised agriculture. Farming areas in Italy are favouring one of two distinct models of production: the first is intensive farming, localized to the plains or areas with ample resources, quite often overexploited; the second is a Mediterranean model of production for rural areas generally considered marginal when compared to more intensive farming areas. The latter faces both a structural weakness and an environmental fragility exacerbated by farming abandonment.

The intensive and specialized farming systems mainly apply to large-scale arable or horticultural production on the most fertile or accessible land and intensive livestock and crop varieties. Intensive systems often involve significant modification of water resources - increased irrigation in arid areas and horticulture - and the application of fertilisers and crop protection products to arable, horticultural and orchards.

Changes in food chain contracts. Large retail chains (LRCs) act as an intermediary between consumers and the agri-food industry. In order to guarantee a standard food product throughout the entire year, LRCs enter into detailed contracts with suppliers with a range of production and/or processing specifications. For example, contracts may establish the sowing schedule and the type of seeds to be used, the physical characteristics of the product (this criterion is used for fresh food products), the quantities and frequencies of periodic deliveries and deliveries over the course of the year, the type of wrapping and packaging and the preservation method. All this growing pressures reduce both physical biodiversity (varieties) and cultural diversity (traditional knowledge).

Land abandonment. Land abandonment tends to occur in remote areas or on less fertile land where traditional extensive agriculture is threatened by its inability to compete effectively with intensive production in other regions. In these areas, farm incomes are low and there are few incentives for young people to take on farms from the previous generation. As older farmers retire, land may be abandoned, leading to the loss of traditionally managed, semi-natural habitats and an increased risk of disasters such as fires, particularly in arid regions. Alternatively, land may be consolidated into larger holdings which are managed with much less labour so features and habitats become degraded - a style of farming which has been termed 'ranching'.

Alento study area

Table 2. LEDD issues in the Alento study site

LEDD issues	Drivers
	Direct	Indirect
Soil erosion	Collapse of terraces (upper zone, crown of Alento river basin border) Abandonment of traditional arming system	Low olive oil price
		Depopulation
	Increase of rain erosivity	Climate change leading to extreme events Cropland fire High labour costs No off-farm job opportunities in rural areas Impoverishment of traditional knowledge on how to maintain /build terraces Farmers ageing and no young generation taking over the farm Small farm size and farm dispersion Pattern of agricultural policies
	All the above interconnected drivers
Soil sealing (plain areas)	Intensification of agriculture (greenhouses)	Increase of population living in plain and coastal areas
	Urban sprawl Mass-tourism expansion Road networks

Direct drivers

Collapse of terraces (upper zone, crown of Alento River Basin border). Terraces come from a long process of changing the slope of the surface, the flow of the rainfall runoff and of immobilising soil. The lack of maintenance of this man-altered landscape implies the increase of the geomorphic hazard with diffuse problems of instability and the raise of the solid transport in the rivers and dams. In the Alento this problem assumes a particular importance due to the fact that farmers, even when they continue farming, are not encouraged to maintain the terraces because the costs of maintenance are very high compared to revenues of the farms. The subsidies, provided under the support scheme of rural development plan, are trying to sustain investments on these issues. However, on the long term this option might not be economically sustainable since the required amount per square meters is extremely high.

Abandonment of traditional farming system. The abandonment of traditional extensive farming practices is negatively influencing the environment (increased fire risk and landslide), the local landscape and the social-cultural geography of the area.

Increase in rain erosivity. In the Alento, rain erosivity is characterized by a marked seasonal variability, with higher values during the transition from summer to autumn. For proper evaluation of the effects on the ground, it is important to examine the seasonal variability of the erosivity in relation to seasonal variability of the degree of soil protection offered by natural vegetation formations and practices of land use and the occurrence of phenomena such as perturbation fires.

Intensification of agriculture (greenhouses). The cropland of the Alento is quite polarized showing a territorial concentration of crops, with olive groves located in inland hilly areas and intensive farming of vegetables and fruits which is expanding on the plains and on flatland near the coast. Agricultural surface is actually on the increase in Alento and production is becoming more intensified (density of machinery, mechanization, irrigation, variety) in areas of irrigable flat land. This trend although has been influenced by agricultural policies, can be mainly attributed to external factors such as increased cost of labour and other input costs, competition and moving of farmers from neighbouring more degraded land which consider this recent cropland more suitable for very intensive agricultural crop.

Urban sprawl, mass tourism expansion, road networks. These drivers are not dissimilar from the ones operating in Italy as a whole. Please see above.

Indirect drivers

Low olive oil prices. Economic drivers could hold a significant importance for the Alento area because of the extent of specialization in the olive cultivation sector and for its distance from the main Italian and European place of consumption. The olive sector are in crisis (ISMEA 2009), with prices at farm gate continuing to fall, despite increasing demand, and with more and more produce in the market coming from areas of production with significant competitive advantages.

Depopulation. From the 1961-2000 population data we see very few towns have an increasing population rate whilst all others have seen a considerable reduction in population figures. The drop in population figures, especially in the last ten years, has largely concerned the younger generations. In fact, the elderly index rate restores the direct link between depopulation dynamics and population ageing.

Climate change. The effects of climate change in the Alento could lead to an increasingly unpredictable crop production due to increased frequency of periods of extreme weather conditions and seasonal changes which affect the traditional time for agricultural practices. Instabilities in the area’s water balance due to climatic changes can also increase the risk of forest fires during the winter months and further aggravate fires during the summer months.

Cropland fire. The Mediterranean as a whole is characterized by the expansion of forest fires. In the area mainly covered by permanent crops (mainly olive groves), fires increasingly involve croplands. This phenomenon is aggravated by land abandonment and climate change.

High labour costs. See the same driver in Italy.

Lack of off-farm work opportunities in rural areas. According to the workers by sector of employment, agriculture and pensions are the most important source of income in the Alento. Off-farm labour opportunities are offered mostly outside of the area while a minority of them are available in the plains of Alento study site.

Loss of traditional knowledge of terrace maintenance. As the population ages fewer young people are involved in farming activities and so the knowledge required to maintain the traditional terraces of the area risks extinction. This leads to an important impoverishment of the traditional knowledge which has characterized the whole area for centuries.

Ageing farmers and a lack of younger farmers entering agriculture. The de-activation of farming is closely linked to depopulation. Another issue, which is revealing in terms of the dynamics conditioning the evolution of Alento’s social-ecological system, is the rate of generation change in farming. In 2007 young farmers (aged between 15 and 39) represented 5.84 percent of all farmers in the region, compared to higher figures in Italy (ISMEA 2011). The value of the agricultural sector, which is even greater if measured in terms of AV compared to the regional average, is therefore not accompanied by the entrance of a new generation of young entrepreneurship which could give this area greater economic viability and social re-vitalization as well as create the necessary conditions for young people to stay in the area.

Small farm size and farm dispersion. Farming in the Alento area is characterized by a large share of small but dispersed farms (i.e. split into small, scattered plots). In small farms the cultivation has become very much a secondary activity which does not provide any significant income. Often these activities are found on marginal strips of land where olive trees and minor crops are cultivated. In the past there was a tendency to plant olive trees on any available piece of land, even land that was not entirely suitable, and so today much of this land is now abandoned. Farmers who cultivate in these problematic areas of land today are mostly non-farmers, who take on the farming to live in the countryside and/or for personal consumption and/or to supplement their main income. However, in cases such as these, farming has an important social value, the retired and elderly participate and keep active, it provides income supplements, increased demand for labour and more residents.

Pattern of agricultural policies. This section contains a summary of the main patterns of agricultural policies. These policies are more fully described in »Policy context and policy recommendations for LEDD in cropland: general.

The influence of policy drivers on agriculture is crucial in the Alento area. The change from coupled to decoupled government subsidies restored greater choice of agriculture products to the market. Generally speaking decoupling has led to a reduction in intensive farming systems and an abandonment of agriculture systems where production costs outweigh profit. In the long term decoupling should lead to an overall reduction in agricultural surface and a greater concentration of production in the areas best suited to intensive farming (irrigated flat land which allows use of agricultural mechanization). Land abandonment is closely tied to market price, which remains unfavourable. Although cross compliance guidelines include minimum land maintenance regulations, the effectiveness of these regulations depends entirely on the amount of subsidies allocated to farms: if too low (in the case of small, less productive farms) some farmers easily choose to renounce the single farm payment, completing abandoning their farming activities.

Increase in migration to plains and coastal areas. This is a global phenomenon in Italy. See above.

Drivers of LEDD in cropland: China and Zhang Jiachong

2012-05-01T12:34:09+00:00

Author: Honghu Liu

{xtypo_alert}Editor's note 30 Apr 2012: Text source D111 section 3.2{/xtypo_alert}

Rapid development

Soil loss is the product of natural and anthropogenic factors. However, the anthropogenic factors are the main reason for the current intensity and speed of soil loss in China. Reclamation of steep slopes is the fundamental factor for soil loss. In the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, more than 90% is mountainous terrain and plateau, which is the most critical condition for soil loss. The reduction of vegetation is also a direct reason for soil loss. Forest cover has reduced from more than 30% in the early 1950s to its present level of 15.3% in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Destroying forest for land reclamation has caused the loss of 186.67×10⁴ ha of forest cover in Sichuan province between the 1950s and 1980s.

Demand for land for cultivation

In the past 10 years, 6.0×10⁴ ha of cropland have been created from original forest land on steep slopes in Guizhou province. In Bijie region, where soil loss is the most serious, cultivated land increased from 42.9×10⁴ ha in the 1950s to 124 ×10⁴ ha in the 1980s. The increase in cultivated lands is driven by reclamation of the land from forest and grassland clearance on steep slopes. For a long time, sloping land in Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan provinces has represented more than two thirds of cultivated land. Thirty percent of the cultivated land is on slopes of more than 25° (Wang 2009). This is due to the fact that too many people and a high birth rate have resulted in a continually increasing population. Local farmers have therefore had to reclaim the forest land for securing food supply.

Combined socio-economic drivers

The drivers of soil loss in China were studied using soil loss case studies. A vulnerable ecological environment is the premise of soil loss (Guo et al. 2004). The economy, population and technology drive the overuse of biological resources, causing serious damage to vegetation through unlimited expansion of agricultural activities. These activities cause destruction of local micro-relief; decrease the existing vegetation and reduce the water retention capacity of the soil. These processes result in severe soil loss. Among all soil loss cases, 97% of cases were driven by multiple socio-economic factors and only three% were driven by a single factor. Of the cases of soil loss caused by multiple factors, 27% were driven by the economy, population and technology; 14% were driven by the economy and culture; 11% were driven by technology, culture and the system. Less than 10% of cases were driven by other factors.

Drivers of LEDD in cropland: Spain and Canyoles River Basin

2012-05-01T12:35:16+00:00

Author: Artemio Cerda

{xtypo_alert}Editor's note 30 Apr 2012: Text source D111 section 3.2{/xtypo_alert}

Land and ecosystem degradation and desertification (LEDD) drivers considered here are those human actions that trigger LEDD processes. Intensification of agriculture and the expansion of infrastructure are the two main drivers of LEDD in the Jucar River watershed.

Direct drivers

Urbanisation of rural areas. The agriculture system in the study area is characterised by monocultures and small farms. Each field needs a small storage area to install the irrigation system. This has resulted in the urbanisation of small rural buildings which are sometimes extended and transformed into a house. This urbanisation of the land is triggered by the changes in irrigation systems.

Monoculture crops. The increase in citrus plantations in the last two decades has resulted in the removal of any other crop (olives, almonds, other fruits) and this is resulting in a landscape without diversity. The implication of this is a reduction in biodiversity, an increase in water use (aquifer depletion) and the reduction of soil quality.

Urban expansion. During the last decade, there has been an increase in the area of land used for urban development which has particularly affected the surroundings of existing towns. There has also been a significant increase in the illegal construction of houses in the countryside. This is due to investment in building by families and companies. At the time of writing, 20 percent of these houses are empty.

Road and railway construction. The Canyoles River basin connects the central Spanish altiplano and the coastal land. This is the traditional millennia old connection between the coast and the inland country. Since the Iberians (2,300 BP) the Canyoles River has been used for the traffic of goods and people. However, since the 1990s, there has been an increase in the construction of roads and railways, which is degrading the landscape as a result of building works and intense traffic. This construction activity and high volume of traffic is triggering further soil losses from road and railway embankments.

Agricultural intensification. The need to produce agricultural products which can compete in global markets is triggering the process of abandonment of traditional agricultural practices (deep knowledge and millennia old techniques) and an increase in the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. A rapid expansion of drip irrigation systems in citrus production is the reason for the removal of traditional ditch-flooding irrigation systems and the loss of open watercourses, which supported a rich biodiversity. Tradition, culture and knowledge are being lost as a result of the increased use of chemicals.

The concentration of investment into agricultural intensification is contributing to the abandonment of less productive land (small properties and traditionally irrigated land). Urban and Industrial developments contribute to the pressure on agricultural land in areas that are being sold off for development. Forest fires are also increasing in land surrounding urban areas, and this is also contributing to the abandonment of agricultural activity.

Infrastructure development. The Canyoles River watershed is located between the coastal area and the Spanish central altiplano. The valley of the river has for millennia been the path from the coast to central Spain. This is why Iberians (via Eraklea) and Romans (via Augusta) developed the main system of transport in this area. In the nineteenth century a new infrastructure was developed: the railway. Road improvement came in the twentieth century. Over the past ten years there has been a significant change in the infrastructure which affects the Canyoles valley: two new railways (for goods and for high speed passenger transport) were built, together with two new motorways, and there has been a growing tend to concrete or asphalt rural tracks and small roads. This process contributes to soil sealing, degradation of the landscape, loss of farmland and partitioning of property as a result of infrastructure development. Industrial developments are also a source of soil sealing; in many cases large industrial developments are planned but never built but the land is abandoned after it has been levelled and concreted over. The growth of cities and towns without the growth of population with 1 out of 5 houses remaining empty is a clear example of a driver of LEDD that is triggered by changes in the economy over the last 10 years.

Abandonment of industrial developments. Industrial developments are widespread in the Canyoles River basin. Each town strived to have at least one industrial development. The result of this development is an increase in soil sealing and other LEDD issues. These developments are increasingly being abandoned as a result of the economical crisis.

Indirect drivers

Loss of traditional agricultural knowledge. The issue of the loss of traditional agricultural knowledge has been raised by farmers during research interviews. Only three percent of the farmers interviewed knew how to produce products from seeds, and none of them currently completes the full cycle of plant development. This means that farmers act as workers in a system of production that they do not control. Some farmers act as businessmen, as they pay contractors to undertake pruning, harvesting, weed control, pest control, irrigation or planting. Usually, each contractor specialises in one aspect of the production process.

Land abandonment and fires in nearby mountainous terrain. Land abandonment in mountainous areas triggers an increase in biomass which in turn increases the risk of forest fires. Such fires can be devastating if they affect houses, and orchards and other agricultural land. The fire is not the problem, but the high recurrence of arson can trigger a degradation of the soil and an increase in sediment and water runoff which that affects the sediment balance of streams, tributaries and rivers.

Drivers of LEDD in cropland: Western Andévalo

2012-05-01T12:35:50+00:00

Author: Michiel Curfs, Anton Imeson

{xtypo_alert}Editor's note 30 Apr 2012: Text source D111 section 3.2{/xtypo_alert}

Changing agricultural practices

In terms of natural capital, the main drivers of LEDD in cropland in semi arid areas such as Western Andévalo are related to water and soil (organic matter). These drivers also impact on social and economic capitals. As in many other regions, in order for agricultural products from the Western Andevalo to compete in global markets, modern agricultural practices are designed to meet the needs of specific crops. The Andévalo region is currently in the process of being reformed into orange plantations on a scale of importance on a national and international level. Chemical fertilizers and pesticides are therefore being used, for example, to assure crop yields. The majority of these practices are not sustainable and problems associated with LEDD therefore arise. Soils become depleted and depended on mineral fertilizers. With increasing mechanisation, fewer workers are needed in agricultural areas and where demand for labour remains, such employment is often seasonal and short term - for example the use of migrant and temporary workers for harvesting oranges.

Mining activity

The Iberian Pyrite Belt, which touches the north of the Baixo Guadiana area, is one of the most important volcanogenic massive sulphide ore deposits in the world (Delgado et al. 2010). Mining activity in this area historically stems from the Bronze Age (Davis et al. 1999). Many mines closed during the mining crisis in the 20th century but as a result of changing global markets, some mines are reopening. Mining activity in the past has lead to environmental pollution from acid mine drainage and heavy metal soil contamination in the Guadiana Basin and Huelva province (Andalucia Innova 2009, Delgado et al. 2009).

Industrial activity

Huelva, the capital city of the province, is one of the oldest industrial cities of Spain. A recent study by Fernández-Caliani (2011) showed that in the peri-urban area, soils are heavily polluted as a result of industrial chemical production activities and poor management of industrial wastes. Samples showed that sites should be regarded as contaminated soils for which risk reduction measures should be taken. The agricultural products from these per-urban areas are at risk of contamination as a result of these polluted soils.

The production of phosphate fertilizers for agricultural use is concentrated on an industrial site in the city of Huelva. This complex is situated in an estuarine zone of salt marshes, with high ecological sensitivity and value. One of the by-products of the production process is phosphogypsum. This product has high contents of potentially toxic metals and radioactive elements. More than 3 Mt of phosphogypsum waste is produced each year and deposited in stacks one kilometre from the city centre (Pérez-López et al 2007). This dump contains about 100Mt of phosphogypsum and until 1998, 20 percent of the waste produced was poured directly into the Odiel river. This has caused environmental deterioration in the area. Pérez-López et al (2007) found that the phosphogypsum in Huelva is particularly hazardous due to its higher concentrations of impurities. The waste dumps are vulnerable to leaching and weathering through which effluents contaminate water and soils with radioactivity and toxic metals (Periáñez et al. 1996).

Irrigated agriculture

In recent decades there has been a significant increase in irrigated farming in the region. In Andalusia, agricultural use accounts for almost 80 percent of all water use. Urban water use accounts for around 12 percent and use by industry accounts for approximately eight percent (Consejería de Medio Ambiente, Junta de Andalucía 2002). The water used in agriculture is for irrigation and is supplied mainly from superficially held resources such as small reservoirs. Coastal crops are supplied with ground water, which results in contamination of aquifers by marine intrusion caused by overexploitation. In Andalucía, tourism demand accounts for much of the urban water use, with a consumption rate that reaches its peak in the summer months, coinciding with peak agricultural water demand (Velazquez 2006).

Rural migration

Rural migration is an issue in Western Andévalo and Andalucía. The size of the population in rural villages is decreasing but at the same time the average age is increasing. These population changes are mainly caused by young people moving away for economic reasons, to places where employment opportunities are better, such as at the coast and in cities. This process leads to an increase in the population of coastal areas, driven in part by increasing tourism. In the rural areas of Western Andévalo, this leads to fewer people working in the agricultural sector, resulting in land abandonment.

Land abandonment

A particular issue associated with land abandonment in Western Andevalo is the associated increase in fire risk. In contrast, one positive aspect of land abandonment in the region is the increase in soil organic matter and biodiversity as a result of the cessation of unsustainable land management practices.

Climate change

The Western Andévalo represents a typical semi-arid region, where human activity and modification of the hydrological regime over previous decades have led to increasing water scarcity and the identification of water shortage as a ‘structural characteristic’ of the system. Future climate change will act to amplify existing water stress, with important consequences for the availability and distribution of water between different uses of land (ADAM 2009).

Water stress is related to irregular rainfall patterns that are predicted to worsen on the Iberian Peninsula due to changing climate scenarios. According to meteorological records in the study area, a trend of declining precipitation can be observed between 1932 and 1996. Two trends in precipitation were recorded in Portugal and Spain during the MEDALUS Project (Corte Real 1996). These were the later onset of the autumn rainy period; and a decline in the reliability of rainfall in early spring and in particular in April. These changes have led to a reduction in winter percolation to groundwater and a decrease in the discharge of springs, affecting water availability in the flood plains. Water stress related to irregular rainfall, or the total absence of water during long dry spells, and salinity related to over-exploitation of springs are common impacts of changing weather patterns and increased anthropogenic water demand (Tadeo 2001-2006). The expected climatic changes for this area are likely to change rainfall patterns; total rainfall is likely to be less than current but is expected to fall in more intense bursts during severe storms (Goodess and Jones 2002). These intense rainfall events are also expected to exacerbate erosion problems.

Urbanisation

It has been estimated that Spain has built more housing units than France, Britain and Germany combined during the last decade. The amount of new housing reached 687,523 units in 2010. If the renovation of existing houses is also taken into account, the number of housing units totalled 1.1 million. In the western Andevalo area, the growth of urban areas is one of the main land use change issues. Close to the coast and near the town of Ayamonte, a new urban area named ‘Costa Esuri’ has been built, which occupies some 950 ha. Approximately 6,000 apartments have been built, along with two golf courses. This will significantly increase pressure on limited water resources. Moreover, approximately 600 ha of the total area has been constructed in a NATURA 2000 protected area.

Trans-border drivers

Although the Western Andévalo is part of Spain, the drivers related to LEDD issues are not confined to Spanish land use and rural development. The Western Andévalo is part of the Guadiana River basin, which is an international basin and forms the border between Portugal and Spain. Unilateral management decisions and policies concerning this drainage basin clearly have an effect on both countries. The scientific monitoring and management approaches used in this area are substantially different between Spain and Portugal. Water consumption issues have led to the establishment of discussions between Spain and Portugal on the water flow regime in the Guadiana basin. The consumption from the Alqueva (Portugal), Chança and Andévalo (Spain) reservoirs will eventually lead to a decrease of freshwater input to the Guadiana River. The expected increase in erosion and deterioration that accompany this decrease in water flow can be seen as an off-site impact in relation to the newly expanding water consuming agricultural practices in the Western Andévalo.